Prediction Market Open Interest Tops $1 Billion for First Time as OKX Report Highlights Polymarket’s Dominance and Sentiment Premium

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where users trade on the outcomes of political, economic and public events. It has expanded its regulated U.S. operations in recent years. The revenue surge could help support its pursuit of a $15 billion valuation and intensify its competition with regulated rival Kalshi.

By the sixth week after the launch of its U.S. exchange, Polymarket’s projected annualized revenue had exceeded $1 billion, indicating that the new market quickly boosted trading and fee income. Although reports did not disclose the exact launch date or weekly revenue, the milestone has become an important indicator of prediction markets’ accelerating move into the mainstream.

Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction-market platforms that let users trade contracts based on the outcomes of political, economic and other events. Their cumulative trading volume has surpassed $150 billion, underscoring the sector's emergence as a major fintech segment. Kalshi has taken the lead in the U.S. market with authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a combined $21.9 billion in monthly trading volume in April 2026, an all-time high. However, Polymarket's monthly volume fell for the first time since August 2025, allowing Kalshi to overtake it in scale. Polymarket has also partnered with Chainalysis to strengthen compliance as it continues seeking to reopen trading to U.S. users.

Prediction markets allow users to put money behind their forecasts for political, economic and cultural events, but they have often been viewed as venues for occasional gambling. A report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket says retail users are increasingly trading frequently, gradually turning such platforms into everyday tools for tracking news trends and market consensus.

Polymarket's monthly trading volume rose to $25.7 billion in early 2026, while its number of active wallets also increased sharply. The figures suggest participation is no longer driven solely by major elections. The report estimates that the prediction market industry could reach $240 billion, signaling that these platforms are rapidly moving into the mainstream.

Polymarket is an onchain prediction market built on Polygon where users trade on the outcomes of political, economic, technology and other events. The platform generates revenue from trading fees. Its revenue surge suggests prediction markets may become a sustainable crypto finance business rather than relying solely on election-driven interest, though regulatory pressure in the United States, Europe and Argentina remains a major risk.

On March 30, 2026, Polymarket expanded taker fees beyond crypto and sports to markets covering finance, politics, economics, culture, weather and technology. DeFiLlama data showed daily fees rising from about $363,000 to more than $1 million on both April 1 and April 2, putting the early annualized estimate at about $338 million. Fees totaled $7.1 million in the first week of the second quarter, accounting for 96.8% of all onchain prediction-market fees.