Bitcoin Falls by Half From Peak as Market Enters Slow-Decline, Distribution Phase

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is widely viewed as a barometer for risk assets. A recent escalation in geopolitical conflict has pushed oil prices higher, while stress in Japan’s bond market and the prospect of selling by Strategy have heightened investor concerns about a renewed global regulatory crackdown. Together, these headwinds have put Bitcoin at risk of retesting a key psychological threshold. Whether that support holds will be an important signal for the broader digital asset market.

Geopolitical risks weighed on risk assets after former US President Donald Trump warned in mid-July that the United States would forcibly operate the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly fell below $62,000 on July 15 before testing support at $60,000. The latest data, however, showed signs that panic selling was stabilizing on July 16 as sellers’ profit margins fell to zero. The market is now watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level.

Bitcoin weakened even as global equities and AI stocks hit record highs, reflecting a shift in capital toward technology shares and cooling institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had been a major source of buying in the current rally, while Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has long been viewed as a bellwether for corporate Bitcoin holdings, making its moves influential for market confidence. Reports describing these developments as “recent” did not provide an exact calendar date.

Bitcoin first fell below $66,000 this week before briefly retreating to around $62,400. Other reports said it later lost the $60,000 level, triggering more than $1.5 billion in forced liquidations across the crypto market. U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows for 11 consecutive days, totaling about $3.5 billion. Strategy reduced its holdings for the first time since the end of 2022, with the market’s excess supply estimated at $4.4 billion.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and other ETPs have been important channels for institutional capital entering the crypto market over the past year, and their flows often influence prices. Bitcoin has now fallen below $60,000 amid a stronger U.S. dollar, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and market leverage that has yet to be fully flushed out. Annual flows turning negative signal waning institutional allocation momentum and suggest the market could face a deeper correction.

On June 26, 2026, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said Bitcoin could first fall to $55,000, about 8% below $60,000. K33 Research data showed that, as of June 18, rolling one-year flows stood at negative 1,176 BTC, the first negative reading since November 2023. Global ETP holdings totaled 1,466,029 BTC, down 127,774 BTC, or 8%, from their peak.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.