Prediction Markets Put Odds of iPhone 18 Price Hike at 90%

Surging demand from global AI data centers is driving up memory costs, while the shift to TSMC’s 2-nanometer process is expected to make advanced chips more expensive. The combination could significantly increase component costs for Apple’s iPhone 18, testing the company’s ability to offset inflation through supplier negotiations and product mix. Any price adjustment would matter for upgrade demand and Apple’s broader strategy for positioning its premium devices.

Prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi and yoyo market now put the probability of an iPhone 18 price increase at 90%, up sharply from 47%. The swing reflects growing conviction among traders that Apple will pass at least part of the higher memory and chip costs on to consumers, though the contracts do not confirm the company’s plans. Analysts also see a possible strategic rationale: a higher iPhone price tier could prepare buyers for the premium positioning of Apple’s first foldable handset, the iPhone Fold.