Bitcoin Faces Resistance as Strategy Funding Strain Raises Risk of Slide to $54,000

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is widely viewed as a barometer for risk assets. A recent escalation in geopolitical conflict has pushed oil prices higher, while stress in Japan’s bond market and the prospect of selling by Strategy have heightened investor concerns about a renewed global regulatory crackdown. Together, these headwinds have put Bitcoin at risk of retesting a key psychological threshold. Whether that support holds will be an important signal for the broader digital asset market.

Geopolitical risks weighed on risk assets after former US President Donald Trump warned in mid-July that the United States would forcibly operate the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly fell below $62,000 on July 15 before testing support at $60,000. The latest data, however, showed signs that panic selling was stabilizing on July 16 as sellers’ profit margins fell to zero. The market is now watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level.

U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies are moving in opposite directions. A chip-stock rally lifted technology shares and gave the Nasdaq its best quarterly performance since 2020, while bitcoin retreated to $58,000. Strategy, which holds a large amount of bitcoin, has become a key gauge of potential selling pressure because its capital transactions could affect supply.

Bitcoin recently fell to about $58,000, failing to follow the U.S. stock market higher. Strategy adjusted the capital structure supporting its bitcoin strategy and proposed a monetization plan capped at about $1.25 billion, raising concerns that the related assets could subsequently enter the market. The report did not provide the event's exact date and cited 2020 only as the benchmark for the Nasdaq's quarterly performance.

Bitcoin weakened even as global equities and AI stocks hit record highs, reflecting a shift in capital toward technology shares and cooling institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had been a major source of buying in the current rally, while Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has long been viewed as a bellwether for corporate Bitcoin holdings, making its moves influential for market confidence. Reports describing these developments as “recent” did not provide an exact calendar date.

Bitcoin first fell below $66,000 this week before briefly retreating to around $62,400. Other reports said it later lost the $60,000 level, triggering more than $1.5 billion in forced liquidations across the crypto market. U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows for 11 consecutive days, totaling about $3.5 billion. Strategy reduced its holdings for the first time since the end of 2022, with the market’s excess supply estimated at $4.4 billion.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has raised funds by issuing perpetual preferred stock STRC to expand its bitcoin holdings, closely linking the company's securities, leveraged financing and the crypto market. After STRC fell below its $100-per-share benchmark, investors grew concerned that its fundraising capacity and dividend commitments could come under pressure. The preferred stock's price swings have therefore become a key gauge of confidence in Strategy's creditworthiness and bitcoin strategy.

On June 18, STRC fell to its lowest level since issuance, subjecting highly leveraged investors to margin calls and forced liquidations. Strive's CEO stressed that the sharp declines in STRC and SATA stemmed from leveraged liquidations rather than deteriorating credit. The selling subsequently spread to the cryptocurrency market, briefly driving bitcoin down to about $62,000, while DeFi and smart-contract tokens also led losses.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, and its continued purchases have long supported market demand. If financing constraints turned the company into a seller, Bitcoin prices could fall and Strategy’s own liquidity could deteriorate, potentially creating a cascade of liquidations reminiscent of Terra Luna in 2022. However, the company’s net leverage ratio is just 11%, and no debt covenant currently requires it to sell Bitcoin.

Strategy said on May 15, 2026, that it would use $1.38 billion in proceeds from share sales to repurchase convertible debt and pause Bitcoin purchases. Bitcoin subsequently fell 21% in 10 days, retesting $61,000 for the first time in four months. The company’s cash balance dropped to $900 million, enough to cover only six months of dividends. However, 10x Research pointed to $5.4 billion in net spot ETF redemptions since May 12, arguing that inflation and institutional selling pressure were the main drivers.

Bitcoin has been buffeted by the conflict between the United States and Iran and reports that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed. The waterway is critical to global oil shipments, and rising crude prices could fuel U.S. inflation and drain market liquidity. On the technical front, $70,000 has emerged as clear resistance, while $65,000 is a key area to watch for buying support.

The latest reports showed Bitcoin falling below $66,000 and nearing a three-week low after the United States and Iran launched a fresh round of attacks, extending its decline from $66,500 at the start of the episode. The April 3 market outlook focused on support at $65,000, but some price targets have been lowered to $41,000.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.

Bitcoin rebounded sharply over six weeks after falling to $66,000 in early April 2026, but the 200-day moving average remains a key dividing line in determining whether the bear market will continue. TradingShot noted that Bitcoin hit a fresh low after failing to break above the trend line from below in 2022, making the latest test critical to whether the market can reverse its medium-term weakness.

On May 6, TradingShot identified $84,000 as the most critical level for bulls to reclaim, warning that failure to break through could extend the bear market and send Bitcoin toward $50,000. On May 14, CryptoQuant put the 200-day moving average at about $82,400. Bitcoin subsequently retreated to around $79,300, while investors had already realized profits on 14,600 BTC worth nearly $1.2 billion on May 4, signaling mounting selling pressure.

Bitcoin has recently traded in a volatile range near $66,000, driven by selling pressure at the U.S. stock market open and expectations surrounding U.S. government tariff policy. Oil’s return to above $100 a barrel has intensified inflation concerns and pressure on risk assets. That has made $65,000 a key battleground between bulls and bears, with a break below it potentially putting the psychological $60,000 level to the test.

As of July 19, 2026, market views compiled by Cointelegraph were sharply divided. Some traders said BTC remained resilient, while analysts described $65,000 as an “entry zone” but warned that failure to hold the level could send the price back to $60,000. Near-term attention is focused on U.S. equities, tariff developments and oil prices above $100 a barrel.