Polymarket Puts Odds of Cheng-Xi Meeting at 34%, Lai Ching-te’s Exit at 12%

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users trade event outcomes using USDC. Its market for Taiwan’s nine-in-one local elections on November 28, 2026, will be settled based on which party wins the most mayoral and county magistrate seats. Although such markets are often viewed as alternative opinion polls, participation in Taiwan may violate Article 103-1 of the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act, and onchain anonymity does not make transactions untraceable.

Polymarket opened the market on December 4, 2025. As of February 26, 2026, the Kuomintang had an implied probability of 88%, compared with 12% for the Democratic Progressive Party, while total trading volume was below $30,000. On April 1, the Taiwan Yunlin District Prosecutors Office said it had identified two 29-year-old men who had wagered 5 USDC and 20 USDC, respectively. The website was also blocked in Taiwan in May under a Miaoli District Court ruling.

Polymarket, a prediction market where users trade crypto assets based on event outcomes, recently introduced contracts on Taiwan’s 2026 local elections. Market-implied probabilities fluctuate with the amount wagered and should not be treated as opinion polls. The contracts have drawn scrutiny because bets placed through an offshore platform remain subject to Taiwanese law, and the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office has warned that users could violate election and recall laws.

As of July 19, 2026, Polymarket showed the Kuomintang’s probability of winning had reached as high as 88%. In the first prosecution involving a prediction market for the 2026 local elections, a Kaohsiung man was indicted for wagering about NT$23,000. Prosecutors warned that betting could violate the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act and carry a maximum prison sentence of six months.

The Trump-Xi summit, originally scheduled for late March, is an important forum for the U.S. and Chinese leaders to address trade, technology and geopolitical disputes. Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket lets traders bet on event outcomes, making contract probabilities a real-time gauge of market expectations for political schedules. The summit’s timing was disrupted as the U.S.-Iran war intensified.

Trump requested a one-month delay to the summit in response to the U.S.-Iran war, sending the probability on a related Polymarket contract plunging from 75% to 5%. The White House most recently said the summit would instead take place in Beijing on May 14–15. Xi Jinping and his wife will also make a reciprocal visit to Washington after the talks, indicating that the trip has been postponed rather than canceled.