Bitcoin Traders Turn Bullish, Options Signal Chance of Break Above $80,000 by June

Bitcoin options reflect traders’ bets on future prices, with strike prices and open interest often used to gauge market direction. Bulls have set a year-end target of $115,000, but whether those positions turn profitable will also depend on the spot price continuing to rise through the end of December.

The latest market data show about $6 billion in open Bitcoin options contracts, with bulls primarily targeting $115,000 by the end of December. Put options, however, still carry a premium of about 9%, indicating that professional traders remain willing to pay more for protection against a pullback despite their bullish bias.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.

Bitcoin has recently held firm at $72,000, indicating that buyers are gradually absorbing pressure from geopolitical conflict risks. Activity among large holders has increased, while BTC inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have fallen markedly, signaling weaker potential selling pressure. Traders are therefore eyeing $88,000 as the next target.

The latest technical signals show that Bitcoin’s 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and 50-day moving average have formed support, while market bias has shifted bullish. The key near-term level is the $76,000 consolidation zone. Analysts expect the rally could accelerate and challenge $88,000 if the price makes a decisive breakout.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures are a key gauge of sentiment among hedge funds and other large speculators. Similar rapid retreats in short positions in 2023 and April 2025 were followed by Bitcoin gains of more than 190% and about 70%, respectively, suggesting the latest positioning reversal could signal that prices are nearing an interim bottom.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 22, 2026, that the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net short position falling from about 1,000 contracts to minus 1,600 within a month. Bitcoin is holding near its 200-week exponential moving average of about $68,350. A confirmed rebound could put $85,000 within reach before April, while a break below that level could still send the cryptocurrency down to $40,000–$50,000.