Deep Order Books Validate Bitcoin’s August Surge to $80,000

Bitcoin has fluctuated recently amid expectations of interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to a July 15, 2026, report by crypto news outlet Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is regaining its footing after outflows from spot ETFs. Its ability to hold key price levels will directly affect capital flows into digital assets worldwide in the second half of 2026, making it an important gauge of whether the crypto market is entering a bull run.

MN Trading analyst Poppe said on July 15, 2026, that Bitcoin had successfully held the key $61,000 support level, while whales were actively trading in the $63,500–$63,800 range. He forecast that Bitcoin would return to $68,000 within two weeks and challenge the $80,000 mark in August. The market is closely watching resistance at higher levels and whether spot trading volume can continue to support the rally.

Whether Bitcoin can turn a short-term rebound into a new rally depends on breaking through technical resistance and securing confirmation from capital flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.03 billion in net inflows in April 2026, while Strategy spent $2.54 billion to buy 34,000 BTC, temporarily strengthening support between $68,000 and $70,000.

Bitcoin rebounded to a high of $79,477 on April 24, but analysts said a trend reversal would not be confirmed unless it closed above $80,000–$83,000 for several consecutive days. By June 9, the price had recovered after falling below $60,000 the previous week. HEX Trust still viewed $79,000–$80,000 as the threshold for a bullish turn, while FxPro saw $68,000 as a lower level that would confirm the rebound.

A bullish divergence occurs when prices continue to make new lows while the relative strength index, or RSI, moves higher, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing. Cointelegraph noted that the last time this signal appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly chart was after FTX collapsed in November 2022. Bitcoin then climbed about 715%, from roughly $15,500 to $126,200, drawing attention to the latest signal.

Cointelegraph reported on June 8, 2026, that Bitcoin had fallen from $75,770 to about $63,000 while its weekly RSI recovered from below 30 to above 34. If confirmed, it would be only the second weekly bullish divergence in Bitcoin’s history. Analyst Van de Poppe said a break above $64,000–$65,000 could open the way to the $79,000 CME gap and resistance above $90,000. The 50-week moving-average target is about $91,755.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has risen from about $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, reclaiming Glassnode’s True Market Mean of $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis of $79,100. That has put most active investors back in profit and made the Active Realized Price of $85,200 the next key resistance level.

Bitcoin traded at about $80,800 on May 7, 2026. Bitfinex said futures funding rates had shifted from negative to neutral or slightly positive, while Glassnode estimated that roughly $2 billion in short gamma exposure near $82,000 could fuel further gains. On May 6, Ondo Finance, JPMorgan Kinexys, Mastercard and Ripple also completed a cross-border redemption of OUSG through the XRP Ledger, settling the transaction in under five seconds.

Bitcoin has not posted an equally strong 28-day return since April 2025. The price has now reclaimed a key trend line, while a market sentiment index has risen to a three-month high. The move is significant because spot buying and derivatives capital are returning in tandem, suggesting the rally is not being driven solely by a short-term squeeze.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $79,472 on Wednesday, approaching the $80,000 threshold and setting a new monthly high. Market data showed simultaneous increases in BTC derivatives open interest and a positioning index, indicating an influx of fresh capital. With the price holding above $77,000, traders continued to add bullish positions.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.

Bitcoin has recently held firm at $72,000, indicating that buyers are gradually absorbing pressure from geopolitical conflict risks. Activity among large holders has increased, while BTC inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have fallen markedly, signaling weaker potential selling pressure. Traders are therefore eyeing $88,000 as the next target.

The latest technical signals show that Bitcoin’s 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and 50-day moving average have formed support, while market bias has shifted bullish. The key near-term level is the $76,000 consolidation zone. Analysts expect the rally could accelerate and challenge $88,000 if the price makes a decisive breakout.

Bitcoin options reflect traders' price bets and hedging needs, making them a key gauge of market sentiment. Data from on-chain options platform Derive.xyz show capital shifting toward positions that would benefit from BTC breaking above $80,000. The move signals growing confidence in further gains as the market's focus shifts from guarding against losses to chasing a rally.

The latest options pricing from Derive.xyz puts Bitcoin's probability of breaking above $80,000 by the end of June at about 35%. Traders are also actively buying bullish positions with strike prices above $80,000. As demand for downside protection weakens, some analysts say BTC could challenge $100,000 in June if the rally continues.