Bitcoin Traders Target $88,000 as Market Sentiment Turns Bullish

Bitcoin options reflect institutional bets on future price ranges, while Japan’s low interest rates have long supported yen carry trades that channel capital into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. After the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised rates on August 5, 2024, bitcoin fell from about $64,000 to $49,000 within two days, highlighting how monetary policy can affect global liquidity and cryptocurrency prices.

On June 12, 2026, Laevitas tracked a 3,100-contract bullish butterfly trade on Deribit expiring July 31: 775 options bought at a $70,000 strike, 1,550 sold at $75,000 and 775 bought at $80,000. The trade bet on bitcoin approaching $75,000 by month-end. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan was expected to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1% on June 16, the highest level since 1995.

A bullish divergence occurs when prices continue to make new lows while the relative strength index, or RSI, moves higher, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing. Cointelegraph noted that the last time this signal appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly chart was after FTX collapsed in November 2022. Bitcoin then climbed about 715%, from roughly $15,500 to $126,200, drawing attention to the latest signal.

Cointelegraph reported on June 8, 2026, that Bitcoin had fallen from $75,770 to about $63,000 while its weekly RSI recovered from below 30 to above 34. If confirmed, it would be only the second weekly bullish divergence in Bitcoin’s history. Analyst Van de Poppe said a break above $64,000–$65,000 could open the way to the $79,000 CME gap and resistance above $90,000. The 50-week moving-average target is about $91,755.

Bitcoin’s “realized price” reflects holders’ average on-chain cost basis and is widely used to gauge whether investors are willing to defend profitable positions. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the cost-basis range for holders who have owned Bitcoin for three to six months has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below it could mean the recent rebound is merely a pause in the decline.

On May 31, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded 2.5% from around $72,500 and recovered to $74,000 on Sunday. Glassnode data identified $71,400 as the key near-term cost-basis support, with the next target at $78,200. Following similar breakouts since 2017, Bitcoin has gained an average of 36.6% over six months, with a 79.2% probability of rising, suggesting it could reach $101,100 by year-end.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has recently faced headwinds from weak U.S. economic data, Walmart’s disappointing forecast and restrictive monetary policy. Continued net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also weighed on risk appetite, making shifts in professional traders’ positioning an important gauge of the market outlook.

As of July 20, professional traders’ Bitcoin long-to-short ratios on Binance and OKX had risen to two-week highs, signaling renewed market confidence. Although ETF outflows and the macroeconomic environment continued to exert pressure, traders were watching whether BTC could extend its gains and break above $82,000.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.

Bitcoin options reflect traders' price bets and hedging needs, making them a key gauge of market sentiment. Data from on-chain options platform Derive.xyz show capital shifting toward positions that would benefit from BTC breaking above $80,000. The move signals growing confidence in further gains as the market's focus shifts from guarding against losses to chasing a rally.

The latest options pricing from Derive.xyz puts Bitcoin's probability of breaking above $80,000 by the end of June at about 35%. Traders are also actively buying bullish positions with strike prices above $80,000. As demand for downside protection weakens, some analysts say BTC could challenge $100,000 in June if the rally continues.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

Most investors do not view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, and it remains vulnerable to selling during tariff disputes and stock-market volatility. History shows, however, that it often rebounds sharply when liquidity conditions ease. The Trump administration announced “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2, 2025, and imposed additional tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, with the rate on China reaching 34%. Bitcoin fell to $74,600 before rebounding 38% over the following month.

Cointelegraph reported on February 23 that Bitcoin had traded below $75,000 for 18 consecutive days and briefly retested $64,200 as global equities declined. The February 6 low of $60,200 may have marked the cycle bottom. HashRateIndex data showed that Bitcoin’s hash rate had recovered its 25% January decline, while the latest CFTC report showed that large speculators had shifted from net short to net long positions in CME futures.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures are a key gauge of sentiment among hedge funds and other large speculators. Similar rapid retreats in short positions in 2023 and April 2025 were followed by Bitcoin gains of more than 190% and about 70%, respectively, suggesting the latest positioning reversal could signal that prices are nearing an interim bottom.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 22, 2026, that the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net short position falling from about 1,000 contracts to minus 1,600 within a month. Bitcoin is holding near its 200-week exponential moving average of about $68,350. A confirmed rebound could put $85,000 within reach before April, while a break below that level could still send the cryptocurrency down to $40,000–$50,000.