Coin Center Warns Future US Governments Could Intensify Crypto Crackdown Without Clear CLARITY Act Rules

The CLARITY Act is intended to establish a US market structure for digital assets and clarify how oversight is divided between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its fate matters to token classification, trading-platform supervision and compliance obligations across the crypto industry. Supporters view legislation as a more durable way to end years of uncertainty over which agency governs different parts of the market.

With the bill’s prospects of passage fading, the SEC and CFTC are moving to develop crypto rules under their existing authorities. Industry experts caution that agency regulations would offer less lasting certainty than an act of Congress because a future administration or reconstituted commission could reverse them, while courts could also narrow or invalidate the measures. The emerging CLARITY-free approach may provide near-term guidance but leave companies exposed to another shift in US policy.

The CLARITY Act seeks to create the first comprehensive US market structure for digital assets, defining when tokens should be treated as securities or commodities and dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its significance extends beyond jurisdictional lines: negotiations over stablecoins and decentralized finance could determine whether Congress can deliver durable rules for an industry still operating under fragmented enforcement and guidance.

The Senate majority leader has moved to initiate a procedural vote, positioning the bill for a possible full-chamber vote as early as mid-September. The White House has pledged to push CLARITY across the “finish line” in September, but resistance is mounting. Senator Ruben Gallego has urged colleagues not to rush the measure, Galaxy cut its estimated odds of passage to 10%, and the CFTC and SEC are exploring joint regulatory steps should Congress fail to act.

The US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, seeks to establish a federal framework for crypto markets and clarify oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bipartisan passage would give digital-asset firms a clearer compliance path in the US, while supporters also view regulated stablecoins as a strategic tool for preserving the dollar’s role in global digital finance.

Coinbase’s head of institutional strategy, John D’Agostino, said bipartisan negotiations have entered their final stage, with industry groups and other stakeholders seeking an agreement before Congress leaves for its August recess. D’Agostino said stablecoins could help sustain the dollar’s international advantage and added that US community banks are increasingly pursuing partnerships with crypto companies, signaling broader engagement between traditional lenders and the digital-asset sector.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a U.S. market structure for digital assets, a step broadly expected to reduce regulatory uncertainty across crypto. Mizuho, however, says clearer rules could invite more institutional-scale stablecoin issuers and further commoditize Circle’s USDC, pressuring revenue over time. Circle currently retains about 38% of USDC reserve income after sharing proceeds with distribution partners including Coinbase and Binance.

Republicans released the latest bill text on July 22, 2026, positioning it for a possible full Senate vote as soon as the following week. Mizuho analysts led by Dan Dolev cited Open USD, backed by more than 140 financial, technology and crypto companies, as a competitive threat. The firm kept its $50 price target on Circle; the shares traded near $67, down about 6% that day. Circle’s distribution agreement with Coinbase could be renegotiated as early as August.

The CLARITY Act aims to create the first federal market regulatory framework for U.S. digital assets, chiefly by defining the respective jurisdictions of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). If enacted, the bill would affect token classification, trading-platform compliance and investor protection. It is also a key part of the Trump administration’s effort to institutionalize cryptocurrency policy.

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said officials were pushing to complete the legislation by July 4, 2026. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a markup in May before sending the bill to the Senate floor in June. However, four disputed issues — including stablecoin yield mechanisms and ethics provisions for public officials — still require a bipartisan compromise. The estimated chance of passage has fallen below 50%, while one reporter said the legislative process could make meeting the deadline difficult.

The US Congress is considering the CLARITY Act, which seeks to clarify regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and trading platforms and reduce legal uncertainty for crypto companies. Senator Cynthia Lummis says clear rules are critical to bringing businesses back to the United States and preserving the country’s leadership in financial technology.

Lummis warned that this week could be the United States’ last critical opportunity to advance the CLARITY Act before 2030. She said China could otherwise write the rules for a new financial era. Negotiations have continued since the Senate returned, but Democrats and Republicans remain divided over provisions covering lawmakers’ ethics and safeguards against bad actors. A vote on crypto market structure could take place as early as August.

The Clarity Act is a key U.S. congressional effort to provide greater regulatory certainty for crypto assets. It aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins and clarify rules governing issuance, reserve assets and regulatory jurisdiction. Because stablecoins are widely used in trading and payments, the bill’s trajectory will affect compliance costs and market strategies across the industry.

The U.S. House of Representatives recently held a markup session on the Clarity Act, reviewing and debating the bill provision by provision. Despite disputes among lawmakers over some clauses, the measure advanced to the next stages of the legislative process. Existing reports did not disclose the exact date of the meeting, the vote tally or any amounts involved. The timing of a full House vote and Senate consideration remains to be seen.

The U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act, aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC and establish rules for blockchain networks, tokens and trading platforms. The House passed the bill by a vote of 294–134 in July 2025, seeking to reduce regulatory uncertainty and the risk of the industry moving offshore.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced a related bipartisan version on May 14, 2026. It must next be reconciled with the Agriculture Committee’s version before going to the full Senate for a vote. Andreessen Horowitz’s a16z crypto subsequently said clear rules could foster domestic innovation and preserve the dollar’s position. At the time, the U.S. Dollar Index stood at 99.27, up 1.28% over the previous 30 days.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market and clarify the division of oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Whether the bill can address stablecoin yield and rewards will affect the interests of banks and companies including Coinbase and Circle, while helping shape the institutional direction of the U.S. crypto market.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has released its latest draft and held a key hearing, with only 24 hours remaining before the deadline for submitting amendments. Bipartisan lawmakers are nearing a compromise over stablecoin yield, and the bill is expected to enter markup on May 11. The draft has also been sent to the White House for review. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt is targeting passage by July 4. The developments helped push Bitcoin above $78,000, while Circle shares rose about 18% in a single day.