Brazil Bans 27 Prediction-Market Platforms, Including Polymarket and Kalshi

Polymarket lets users trade cryptocurrency-based contracts tied to outcomes in politics, sports, economics and weather, with winning positions paying out after an event is resolved. South Korea generally prohibits gambling under its Criminal Act, which allows fines of up to 10 million won ($7,000). Regulators said the platform’s winner-take-all structure encourages speculation, while its non-custodial model and smart-contract settlement do not place it beyond Korean law.

The Korea Media and Communications Commission decided on Aug. 18, 2026, to order domestic internet service providers to block Polymarket, following a July 6 hearing at which the company argued it neither handles customer funds nor accepts won payments. The commission said it consulted the Korean National Police Agency, the National Gambling Control Commission and the Korea Sports Promotion Foundation before concluding the service could facilitate illegal gambling. South Korea joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting access to the platform.

Prediction markets let users trade event contracts tied to outcomes ranging from elections to game winners, point spreads and player statistics. Kalshi and Polymarket maintain that their US exchanges fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling rules. State and local authorities counter that sports contracts are functionally wagers offered without the licensing, taxes, age limits and responsible-gambling safeguards imposed on regulated sportsbooks.

Baltimore’s city government filed suit in Baltimore City Circuit Court on Aug. 13, 2026, naming Kalshi, Polymarket and distribution partners Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase as defendants. The complaint alleges the companies operated unlicensed sports-betting services and deceptively presented wagering products as federally regulated financial trading. Baltimore is seeking an injunction, restitution and disgorgement, plus civil penalties of as much as $1,000 for each violation and each day it continues. The filing did not specify an aggregate damages demand.

Polymarket uses crypto assets to trade contracts tied to event outcomes. Supporters view it as a crowd-forecasting tool, while critics argue that it is essentially a form of gambling. Indonesia bans all gambling, and President Prabowo Subianto’s term is scheduled to run until October 2029. Indonesia’s classification of the platform also highlights its divergence from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which allows regulated event-contract markets to operate.

On May 21, 2026, Polymarket launched markets on whether Prabowo would leave office by May 31, June 30 or the end of the year. Trading volume exceeded $46,000, while the probabilities for the three outcomes reached 1%, 2% and 18%, respectively, at one point. Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs formally blocked the website on May 22, saying wagers involving money on uncertain events violated the online gambling ban. It was also investigating social media accounts linked to the platform.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager on political, military and sporting outcomes through event contracts. Such products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but have raised fairness concerns because people with access to confidential information could profit from them. In January 2026, a trader made more than $409,000 by betting on political developments in Venezuela.

On March 23, 2026, Kalshi barred candidates from betting on their own elections and prohibited sports insiders from trading related contracts. Polymarket also banned people with confidential information or the ability to influence outcomes from placing bets. On May 22, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform launched an investigation, saying more than 80 Polymarket users were linked to suspicious trades, and ordered both platforms to provide KYC and monitoring data by June 5.

India's Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 imposes a blanket ban on prediction markets classified as online money games, in which users stake real money and profit based on event outcomes. The legislation was passed and received presidential assent in August 2025, with related rules taking effect on May 1, 2026. Kalshi must comply with the Indian ban even though it is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, or MeitY, asked VPN providers and intermediaries on April 9 to prevent users from circumventing restrictions to access platforms including Polymarket. Officials confirmed on May 21 that a blocking order had been issued, and Indian users could no longer connect to the platform the following day. MeitY also said it could issue a similar order against Kalshi as early as May 22, requiring internet service providers to cut off access at the network level.

Prediction markets allow users to wager through contracts on the outcomes of elections, sporting contests and other events, but they may be treated as regulated gambling in the Netherlands. The Dutch Gambling Authority (Ksa) blocked Polymarket in February 2026 for operating without a gambling license, highlighting the challenges of cross-border enforcement and investor protection involving decentralized platforms.

An investigation by Dutch financial newspaper FD found that, as of May 5, 2026, users in the Netherlands could still trade prediction contracts through Kalshi, Hyperliquid and Interactive Brokers. Hyperliquid has also recently expanded its local services. The Ksa warned that similar platforms could face penalties, while an April study by London Business School found that only 3% of participants were consistently profitable and nearly 70% lost money.