Indonesia Formally Blocks Polymarket, Labels It Illegal Gambling

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market that lets users wager crypto assets on political, economic and other outcomes, has faced growing scrutiny over whether its contracts constitute unlicensed gambling. France’s Autorité nationale des jeux, or ANJ, classifies the platform as an illegal betting service. Allegations involving insider trading and market manipulation have added to regulatory concerns as European authorities tighten oversight of crypto-based prediction platforms.

The ANJ has ordered French internet service providers to block access to Polymarket’s domain, escalating earlier restrictions on financial transactions involving the platform. Polymarket still recorded about 200,000 visits from France in June despite those measures, according to reports citing the regulator. The authority also warned that unlawful promotion of the service could carry fines of as much as 100,000 euros, extending enforcement from payment restrictions to internet access and advertising.

Decentralized prediction market Polymarket has gained prominence in recent years by allowing users to wager on global political and economic events, becoming a popular fintech and blockchain application. Because such platforms involve monetary bets, however, they occupy a regulatory gray area between forecasting and gambling in many countries. As their influence grows, European governments are tightening oversight of decentralized platforms in an effort to curb unauthorized online gambling.

The Czech Finance Ministry recently formally added Polymarket to its blacklist of unauthorized online gambling websites. Under the Czech Gambling Act, local internet service providers must block access to the site within 15 days. The ban marks the Czech Republic's first major crackdown on a crypto prediction market and signals that scrutiny of such decentralized gambling platforms is continuing to intensify across the European Union.

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where users trade on the outcomes of political, economic and other events, with contract prices reflecting market-implied probabilities. The Korea Communications Standards Commission is considering restricting the service over concerns that it may constitute illegal gambling and encourage highly speculative activity. The case also raises questions about where prediction markets fall within the boundaries of financial-trading and gambling regulation.

As of July 20, 2026, the commission said it would hear Polymarket's representations before deciding whether to take corrective action. It has not announced a decision date, fines or any amount involved. Polymarket already faces varying degrees of access restrictions and regulatory scrutiny in countries including the United States, Britain and France.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager on political, military and sporting outcomes through event contracts. Such products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but have raised fairness concerns because people with access to confidential information could profit from them. In January 2026, a trader made more than $409,000 by betting on political developments in Venezuela.

On March 23, 2026, Kalshi barred candidates from betting on their own elections and prohibited sports insiders from trading related contracts. Polymarket also banned people with confidential information or the ability to influence outcomes from placing bets. On May 22, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform launched an investigation, saying more than 80 Polymarket users were linked to suspicious trades, and ordered both platforms to provide KYC and monitoring data by June 5.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users trade event outcomes using USDC. Its market for Taiwan’s nine-in-one local elections on November 28, 2026, will be settled based on which party wins the most mayoral and county magistrate seats. Although such markets are often viewed as alternative opinion polls, participation in Taiwan may violate Article 103-1 of the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act, and onchain anonymity does not make transactions untraceable.

Polymarket opened the market on December 4, 2025. As of February 26, 2026, the Kuomintang had an implied probability of 88%, compared with 12% for the Democratic Progressive Party, while total trading volume was below $30,000. On April 1, the Taiwan Yunlin District Prosecutors Office said it had identified two 29-year-old men who had wagered 5 USDC and 20 USDC, respectively. The website was also blocked in Taiwan in May under a Miaoli District Court ruling.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to wager money on event outcomes, combining information aggregation with gambling-like features. Operators are targeting the vast retail markets of China, Japan and India, but differing legal definitions of gambling, financial products and crypto assets have made regulatory compliance central to their expansion plans.

The latest reports indicate that Polymarket has begun laying the groundwork for an expansion into Japan and plans to lobby the government to allow prediction markets, aiming to secure an operating license by 2030. Despite strict gambling rules in China, Japan and India, the platform is pursuing a strategy similar to that adopted by the crypto industry in its early years: establish a market first, then push for a clear regulatory framework.

India's Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 imposes a blanket ban on prediction markets classified as online money games, in which users stake real money and profit based on event outcomes. The legislation was passed and received presidential assent in August 2025, with related rules taking effect on May 1, 2026. Kalshi must comply with the Indian ban even though it is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, or MeitY, asked VPN providers and intermediaries on April 9 to prevent users from circumventing restrictions to access platforms including Polymarket. Officials confirmed on May 21 that a blocking order had been issued, and Indian users could no longer connect to the platform the following day. MeitY also said it could issue a similar order against Kalshi as early as May 22, requiring internet service providers to cut off access at the network level.

Prediction markets allow users to wager through contracts on the outcomes of elections, sporting contests and other events, but they may be treated as regulated gambling in the Netherlands. The Dutch Gambling Authority (Ksa) blocked Polymarket in February 2026 for operating without a gambling license, highlighting the challenges of cross-border enforcement and investor protection involving decentralized platforms.

An investigation by Dutch financial newspaper FD found that, as of May 5, 2026, users in the Netherlands could still trade prediction contracts through Kalshi, Hyperliquid and Interactive Brokers. Hyperliquid has also recently expanded its local services. The Ksa warned that similar platforms could face penalties, while an April study by London Business School found that only 3% of participants were consistently profitable and nearly 70% lost money.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of elections, economic developments and major events, with Polymarket and Kalshi among the world’s leading operators. Brazil’s government considers such platforms to combine elements of gambling and derivatives trading, requiring compliance with local gambling laws and authorization to trade derivatives. The ban therefore has implications for how operators enter emerging markets and could serve as a regulatory reference for other countries.

Brazil’s government announced a ban on 27 prediction-market platforms on April 24, 2026, including Polymarket and Kalshi, saying the operators had neither complied with Brazilian gambling laws nor obtained authorization to trade derivatives. The action is regarded as the largest prediction-market crackdown yet in an emerging market. Attention is now focused on whether the operators can secure licenses, restore services and adjust their regional strategies.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where traders use crypto assets to wager on the probability of events. Its nuclear contracts allowed them to bet on whether a nuclear explosion would occur by a specified deadline. While such markets can aggregate risk expectations, they have raised ethical and regulatory concerns because people with access to military intelligence could profit and mass casualties could be commodified. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is also tightening rules for event contracts.

Amid the conflict involving Iran and growing concerns about insider trading on wars, Polymarket removed its long-term nuclear detonation markets on March 4, 2026. A 2023 contract at one point implied a 19% probability of a nuclear explosion and drew nearly $700,000 in trading volume, while a contract expiring in June 2025 was once priced at 12% and recorded more than $1.7 million in cumulative volume. On May 10, 2024, the CFTC proposed barring regulated platforms from listing contracts involving war, terrorism or assassination.