Bitcoin Rebounds Against Gold, Could Reach $167K in 2027

Bernstein is tying its bullish Bitcoin outlook to the “debasement trade,” in which investors seek scarce assets as protection against the erosion of fiat-currency purchasing power. The investment research firm’s thesis matters because it frames demand for the cryptocurrency as part of a longer-term inflation hedge and portfolio-allocation shift, rather than solely a speculative cycle driven by short-term market momentum.

Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching its $150,000 base-case target by mid-2027 as the debasement trade gathers strength. The firm projects the cycle could extend into 2029, when Bitcoin may peak at about $300,000. Despite the upbeat cryptocurrency forecast, Bernstein cut its price target for Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, to $350.

Bitcoin is often viewed as “digital gold,” and its relative valuation can be measured using ratios that compare Bitcoin’s market capitalization with gold’s market value and the global broad money supply, or M2. Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin infrastructure company Jan3, said these metrics can help gauge whether capital may shift from gold into crypto assets.

Mow’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a discount of about 24% to 66% to its fair value based on gold’s market capitalization and global M2. The Z-score for the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has also entered undervalued territory. BTC has typically risen sharply after similar signals in the past, though the report did not provide an exact publication date or price target.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio measures the relative strength of the two scarce assets. GeoMetric said the past three bear markets in the ratio each lasted 12–14 months and produced declines of 75%–84%. The current cycle has fallen 81% over roughly 13 months, putting it near the bottom of its historical cycle. A reversal could therefore shape the pace at which capital rotates from gold into crypto assets.

Cointelegraph cited TradingView data on March 20 showing that the BTC/GOLD weekly RSI had recovered to 33 from 21 in mid-February, while the MACD was nearing a bullish crossover. If Bitcoin holds $68,000–$70,000, it could test $76,000–$80,000. CoinDesk reported on March 25 that the ratio had rebounded 30% from about 12 ounces to nearly 16 ounces.

Bitcoin has characteristics of both a hard asset and a high-risk technology asset. Although growth in global M2 supports its long-term trajectory, speculative capital continues to shape the scale of its gains. Fidelity’s head of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, noted that Bitcoin surged alongside software stocks when the latter rose about 58% in 2017–2018 and 93% in 2020–2021. When software stocks fell about 58% in 2022, Bitcoin also declined sharply.

As of February 27, 2026, gold had gained 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin had fallen 30% over the same period. Binance launched round-the-clock gold futures on January 5, with cumulative trading volume closing in on $35 billion, a daily peak of more than $4 billion and a weekly average of $4.7 billion. CryptoQuant said the total value of assets on the exchange had fallen from $140 billion in August 2025 to $102 billion, its lowest since April of that year, signaling an outflow of capital from the platform.

Most investors do not view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, and it remains vulnerable to selling during tariff disputes and stock-market volatility. History shows, however, that it often rebounds sharply when liquidity conditions ease. The Trump administration announced “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2, 2025, and imposed additional tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, with the rate on China reaching 34%. Bitcoin fell to $74,600 before rebounding 38% over the following month.

Cointelegraph reported on February 23 that Bitcoin had traded below $75,000 for 18 consecutive days and briefly retested $64,200 as global equities declined. The February 6 low of $60,200 may have marked the cycle bottom. HashRateIndex data showed that Bitcoin’s hash rate had recovered its 25% January decline, while the latest CFTC report showed that large speculators had shifted from net short to net long positions in CME futures.