Bitcoin Could Return to $75,000 on Miner Resilience and Bullish Professional Trader Sentiment

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a volatile risk asset, and its price often moves in tandem with U.S. technology stocks and the Nasdaq. The $60,000 level is both a key psychological threshold and an important test of whether the bullish structure can endure. Analysts also use the 200-week moving average as a major technical gauge of the long-term trend.

Over a recent weekend, Bitcoin held above $60,000 and showed relative resilience despite a marked decline in the Nasdaq, raising expectations that risk capital could return. Analysts said that if BTC continues to hold firmly above its 200-week moving average, it could first test $70,000 and then potentially reach $92,630.

Bitcoin’s “realized price” reflects holders’ average on-chain cost basis and is widely used to gauge whether investors are willing to defend profitable positions. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the cost-basis range for holders who have owned Bitcoin for three to six months has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below it could mean the recent rebound is merely a pause in the decline.

On May 31, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded 2.5% from around $72,500 and recovered to $74,000 on Sunday. Glassnode data identified $71,400 as the key near-term cost-basis support, with the next target at $78,200. Following similar breakouts since 2017, Bitcoin has gained an average of 36.6% over six months, with a 79.2% probability of rising, suggesting it could reach $101,100 by year-end.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (BTC/XAU) is often used to gauge the relative strength of capital flows into the two scarce assets. After the ratio bottomed and reversed in 2015, 2019 and 2022, Bitcoin gained about 250%, 140% and 140%, respectively, within a year. The latest rebound is therefore being viewed as a possible sign that Bitcoin has bottomed in US dollar terms.

As of April 30, 2026, BTC/XAU had rebounded about 40% from its February low, while Bitcoin had gained 32.65% against the dollar over the same period. Fidelity Investments also said in an April report that the market had entered an accumulation phase. If Bitcoin repeats its historical average gain of 180%, it could reach $167,250 by April 2027. However, the ratio remains below its 100-month EMA, leaving a technical risk of a 20% pullback.

Bitcoin has recently held firm at $72,000, indicating that buyers are gradually absorbing pressure from geopolitical conflict risks. Activity among large holders has increased, while BTC inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have fallen markedly, signaling weaker potential selling pressure. Traders are therefore eyeing $88,000 as the next target.

The latest technical signals show that Bitcoin’s 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and 50-day moving average have formed support, while market bias has shifted bullish. The key near-term level is the $76,000 consolidation zone. Analysts expect the rally could accelerate and challenge $88,000 if the price makes a decisive breakout.

Bitcoin has been correcting for about five months since retreating from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Although the market regards it as a scarce asset, its 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains at 84%. Cointelegraph said that if spot ETF flows are merely following Bitcoin's price, the rebound is not enough to prove the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 and approached $74,000 by March 14, 2026. The U.S. Commerce Department said on March 13 that the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. CoinGlass data showed spot ETFs recorded $583 million in net inflows over four consecutive days, while a separate analyst estimate put the amount accumulated by Strategy through its STRC instrument at more than $900 million.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

Bitcoin has fallen 31% over the past six months, while gold rose 18% and the Nasdaq 100 was broadly flat over the same period. Market makers’ risk appetite has yet to recover, particularly after $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated on October 10, 2025. Whether the spot-market rebound can turn derivatives sentiment bullish is therefore a key test of the rally’s durability.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $74,500 on Monday, March 16, its highest level in 40 days, as the Nasdaq advanced and markets anticipated Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC 2026 keynote. However, the annualized premium on monthly futures was just 2%, below the neutral range of 4%–8%, while the Deribit options delta skew remained at 13%, showing professional traders were still actively hedging against downside risk.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures are a key gauge of sentiment among hedge funds and other large speculators. Similar rapid retreats in short positions in 2023 and April 2025 were followed by Bitcoin gains of more than 190% and about 70%, respectively, suggesting the latest positioning reversal could signal that prices are nearing an interim bottom.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 22, 2026, that the latest Commitments of Traders data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net short position falling from about 1,000 contracts to minus 1,600 within a month. Bitcoin is holding near its 200-week exponential moving average of about $68,350. A confirmed rebound could put $85,000 within reach before April, while a break below that level could still send the cryptocurrency down to $40,000–$50,000.