Most Polymarket Users Lose Money as Trading Volume and Profits Cluster Among a Few Whales

Polymarket allows traders to use crypto assets to wager on outcomes ranging from elections to economic events, with contract prices often treated as real-time measures of collective expectations. The decentralized prediction market relies heavily on transparent blockchain records and wallet activity to establish credibility, making signs of trading on nonpublic information or coordinated bets a significant test of market integrity and a potential focus for regulators.

A Bloomberg Businessweek analysis flagged about $200 million of Polymarket trading during the first half as potentially linked to insider activity. The top 1% of profitable accounts captured more than half of all gains, while over 50% of winning wallets were created within 24 hours before placing their bets. Some traders also appeared to split positions across multiple related wallets before withdrawing proceeds through Coinbase, intensifying scrutiny of the platform’s fairness.

Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to wager through contracts on the outcomes of political, economic and other events, with contract prices also viewed as a crowd-based measure of probability. Although such prediction markets can aggregate information, retail participants face information gaps and competition from professional quantitative firms, raising questions about whether profits are distributed fairly.

A recent Wall Street Journal analysis of Polymarket and Kalshi data found that just 0.1% of professional accounts captured 67% of total profits, while more than 70% of Polymarket users lost money. The report did not disclose the data cutoff date, sample size or actual profit amounts, but the figures show that gains were highly concentrated.

Prediction markets allow users to put money behind their forecasts for political, economic and cultural events, but they have often been viewed as venues for occasional gambling. A report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket says retail users are increasingly trading frequently, gradually turning such platforms into everyday tools for tracking news trends and market consensus.

Polymarket's monthly trading volume rose to $25.7 billion in early 2026, while its number of active wallets also increased sharply. The figures suggest participation is no longer driven solely by major elections. The report estimates that the prediction market industry could reach $240 billion, signaling that these platforms are rapidly moving into the mainstream.

Polymarket is a crypto-settled prediction market where users trade on the outcomes of political, sporting and financial events. Although such platforms have become popular crypto applications, whether they can replace full-time employment income remains unproven. Consumer Shield estimates the average US monthly salary at about $5,220, providing a benchmark for full-time income.

Cointelegraph reported on April 9, 2026, that Andrey Sergeenkov analyzed data covering April 2024 through April 1, 2026. Nearly 1% of traders earned more than $5,000 in a single month, but only 0.1% reached that threshold again the following month and just 0.015% did so for four consecutive months. Only 840 wallets had accumulated profits exceeding $100,000.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where trading prices reflect participants' assessments of the probability of event outcomes. Because the platform imposes geographic restrictions, users in Taiwan should assess its terms of service, asset-transfer costs and related regulatory risks before using a VPN, Web3 wallet or cross-chain funding service.

The latest guide walks Taiwan users through the full process, from connecting through a VPN and setting up a Web3 wallet to choosing a funding channel and placing trades. It also explains the relationship between prices and market expectations. However, the report provides no specific publication date, minimum deposit requirement or fee figures. Actual costs depend on the wallet, network and funding service used.