More Than Half of Bitcoin Supply in Loss as Historical Indicator Points to Nearing Price Bottom

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

Glassnode estimates holders’ cost basis from the price at which Bitcoin last moved onchain, classifying coins as carrying an unrealized loss when the market price falls below that level. When supply held at a loss overtakes supply in profit and the price approaches its 200-week moving average, it often signals pressure on investors and a change of hands. Such conditions have historically appeared late in bear markets, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.

Glassnode said on July 1 that about 10.83 million Bitcoin were held at a loss, exceeding the 9.22 million still in profit. Bitcoin rebounded to about $61,700 on July 3 but remained below its 200-week moving average of $62,660. K33 found that the market historically bottomed within about 13–101 days after similar signals appeared.

CryptoQuant’s realized profit-loss ratio measures the relative strength of realized gains and losses among Bitcoin investors. A sharply negative reading indicates that selling at a loss is dominant. Historically, extreme lows have often coincided with the final stages of bear markets or market bottoms, making the ratio an important on-chain gauge of investor capitulation and potential price reversals.

The latest data showed Bitcoin’s realized profit-loss ratio falling to -0.35, its lowest level in 43 months, though the related report did not provide the exact measurement date or Bitcoin’s price at the time. Analysts said the market may be approaching a bottom and that investors could consider building positions gradually at lower levels instead of chasing prices after a recovery. A single on-chain indicator, however, is not enough to confirm that a bottom has formed.

Whether Bitcoin is in loss is typically determined by comparing each BTC's on-chain acquisition cost with its market price. A rise in loss-making supply means more holders face unrealized losses, potentially increasing selling pressure. The reports did not identify the data provider, but long-term holders still control nearly 75% of the circulating supply, suggesting their holdings have yet to loosen significantly.

At the time covered by the reports, Bitcoin fell below $59,100, pushing the supply in loss to a record 10.83 million BTC. The reports did not provide the exact date of the event. Despite the price weakness, long-term holders still controlled close to three-quarters of the supply, with no signs of a large-scale exit.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin’s “realized losses” are the cumulative losses incurred when holders sell below their purchase price. The metric is commonly used to gauge bear-market pressure and the extent of investor capitulation. CryptoQuant said cumulative realized losses reached $211 billion during the 2022 bear market, providing a key benchmark for assessing whether the current cycle has bottomed.

As of 2026, cumulative realized losses in the Bitcoin bear market remain about $35 billion below the 2022 total, implying losses of roughly $176 billion. Analysts say the market has yet to show typical bottoming signals and may need several more months to absorb selling pressure. Another wave of capitulation selling could occur before a clearer cyclical low takes shape.