Bitcoin Profit-Loss Ratio Hits 43-Month Low as Analysts See Bottom Nearing

According to K33 Research, more than 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply fell into an unrealized loss for the first time when the cryptocurrency’s price dropped to about $61,900 on June 5, 2026. Historically, this has been a classic late-stage bear-market indicator. When most investors are sitting on losses, retail capitulation and a redistribution of holdings among long-term investors typically follow, making the metric an important gauge of whether the crypto market is entering a bottoming phase.

Bitcoin had recovered to about $63,000 as of July 17, 2026, but the share of supply in loss had remained above 50% for 42 days. Historical patterns show that the market typically reaches a macro price bottom within 13–101 days after the metric crosses the halfway mark. The current 42-day stretch is the second longest on record, behind only the 2014 bear market, suggesting Bitcoin is in a critical countdown toward a bottom.

Glassnode estimates holders’ cost basis from the price at which Bitcoin last moved onchain, classifying coins as carrying an unrealized loss when the market price falls below that level. When supply held at a loss overtakes supply in profit and the price approaches its 200-week moving average, it often signals pressure on investors and a change of hands. Such conditions have historically appeared late in bear markets, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.

Glassnode said on July 1 that about 10.83 million Bitcoin were held at a loss, exceeding the 9.22 million still in profit. Bitcoin rebounded to about $61,700 on July 3 but remained below its 200-week moving average of $62,660. K33 found that the market historically bottomed within about 13–101 days after similar signals appeared.

Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.

The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.