Bitcoin Retakes $74,000, but Professional Traders Remain Cautious

Bitcoin last week endured its sharpest weekly swings in months as the price came under concentrated selling pressure. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), a gauge of expected market volatility, offers a measure of hedging demand. Its decline signals easing investor anxiety and may help indicate whether the crypto market is regaining stability.

The latest trading showed Bitcoin stabilizing above $63,000, while BVIV fell to 47% from 60% as the market gradually absorbed last week's selling pressure. A rebound in AI stocks improved risk appetite, helping BNB and Solana (SOL) edge higher, though some market data still pointed to potential pressure ahead for bulls.

Bitcoin has recently faced the dual pressures of spot-market selling and an escalation in the US-Iran military conflict, with Brent crude briefly rising to $95 a barrel. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $3.46 billion in net outflows since May 13, signaling capital flight from the crypto market and increasing the risk of cascading liquidations of leveraged positions.

On June 1, Bitcoin fell below $71,000 for the first time in seven weeks, liquidating about $276 million in leveraged long positions. However, the long-to-short ratio among Binance whales rose to 1.4 from 1.1 a week earlier, while the ratio on OKX climbed to 1.9 on Monday. Futures open interest across major exchanges held at $43.5 billion, suggesting professional traders were adding bullish positions on the dip, although a rebound still depends on an easing of spot-market selling pressure.

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a gauge of global risk appetite, while the area around $77,000 also overlaps with the cost basis of short-term holders. Whether it can sustain a breakout has implications for spot ETFs, derivatives and onchain positioning. Checkonchain said more than 15% of the circulating supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, making pullback risk a particular concern around this dense zone of underwater holdings.

Bitcoin briefly approached $77,500 on May 1. Open interest in Deribit put options with a $76,000 strike and a June 26 expiry rose 22.5%. Santiment data also showed that more than $770 million in BTC flowed onto exchanges during the previous week. By May 25, weekly net inflows stood at about 18,000 BTC, leaving the rebound exposed to potential selling pressure.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.

The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the Bitcoin price gap between Coinbase in the United States and other exchanges. A sustained positive reading typically signals stronger U.S. spot buying. The index remained above zero for 14 consecutive days, its longest bullish streak since Bitcoin set a record above $126,000 in October 2025, making it an important sign of recovering demand.

Bitcoin broke back above $76,000 on Tuesday, April 21, as Coinbase-led spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, rose to $517 million from $55 million on April 17. Combined spot and futures CVD exceeded $8.5 billion. Bitcoin subsequently consolidated below $77,000, shifting the market's focus to whether $75,000 can become long-term support.

Bitcoin strengthened despite heightened geopolitical risks, showing that crypto assets were not moving entirely in step with traditional markets such as U.S. stocks and oil. The threat of war between the United States and Iran resurfaced, but investors reacted relatively calmly. Buying was driven mainly by strategic investors and short-term speculators, suggesting market risk appetite had yet to cool significantly.

In the latest trading session, U.S. stocks opened little changed and international oil prices fell, while Bitcoin's daily gain approached 3% as it reclaimed $74,000. The source material did not specify the exact reporting date, exchange or trading volume. The advance against the broader trend suggests that worsening tensions in the Middle East had yet to trigger large-scale safe-haven selling in the crypto market.

10x Research said the rebound was driven mainly by the unwinding of large put-option positions at the $60,000 strike. Market makers were forced to buy Bitcoin to rebalance their exposure, rather than responding to fresh bullish inflows. With no corresponding increase in demand for upside call options, the rally’s staying power remains in doubt.

Bitcoin rose to $75,912 during Asian trading on March 17, 2026, its highest level in six weeks and since February 4, before quickly falling back below $75,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index also slipped to 2,162 from 2,202, while last year’s key support level of $74,400 has now become near-term resistance.

Bitcoin has been correcting for about five months since retreating from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Although the market regards it as a scarce asset, its 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains at 84%. Cointelegraph said that if spot ETF flows are merely following Bitcoin's price, the rebound is not enough to prove the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 and approached $74,000 by March 14, 2026. The U.S. Commerce Department said on March 13 that the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. CoinGlass data showed spot ETFs recorded $583 million in net inflows over four consecutive days, while a separate analyst estimate put the amount accumulated by Strategy through its STRC instrument at more than $900 million.

Bitcoin returned to $70,000 and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded renewed inflows, but rising risks from the war in the Middle East and weaker US labor-market data fueled risk aversion and curbed the rally. The probability of a March interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve also fell below 1%, leaving traders cautious about a near-term break above the previous high.

The latest derivatives pricing showed that professional traders saw a less than 17% chance of Bitcoin breaking above $78,000 by the end of March. Even with the cryptocurrency holding near $70,000, ETF buying has yet to translate into clear breakout momentum. Markets remain focused on developments in the war, US employment data and the Fed's interest-rate path.

Most investors do not view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, and it remains vulnerable to selling during tariff disputes and stock-market volatility. History shows, however, that it often rebounds sharply when liquidity conditions ease. The Trump administration announced “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2, 2025, and imposed additional tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, with the rate on China reaching 34%. Bitcoin fell to $74,600 before rebounding 38% over the following month.

Cointelegraph reported on February 23 that Bitcoin had traded below $75,000 for 18 consecutive days and briefly retested $64,200 as global equities declined. The February 6 low of $60,200 may have marked the cycle bottom. HashRateIndex data showed that Bitcoin’s hash rate had recovered its 25% January decline, while the latest CFTC report showed that large speculators had shifted from net short to net long positions in CME futures.