Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 30%

The U.S. CLARITY Act is intended to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto asset markets and clarify the rules governing regulators and industry participants. Whether the bill advances during the current Congress will determine whether the industry gains the long-awaited regulatory certainty it seeks and will shape the plans of trading platforms, token issuers and investors.

Galaxy Research recently lowered the bill's probability of passage to 50%, citing an increasingly constrained U.S. Senate floor schedule and three unresolved sticking points, including conflict-of-interest rules. If the Senate does not schedule a vote in early July, the legislative process could slip to September, delaying implementation of the regulatory framework.

The U.S. CLARITY Act seeks to establish a market structure and division of regulatory responsibilities for digital assets. The crypto industry sees it as crucial legislation for clarifying rules governing securities, commodities and trading platforms. Its progress will affect not only compliance pathways for U.S. businesses but also competition between stablecoin rewards and bank deposits, as well as the future boundaries of DeFi regulation.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn recently cut his estimate of the bill's chances of passing in 2026 to 60%. He warned that committee consideration must be completed by the end of April, with the measure reaching the Senate floor in May; if that window is missed, its chances of passing this year would be extremely low. Wintermute's Ron Hammond had previously put the probability at just 30%, highlighting a compressed legislative calendar and opposition from the banking industry as the main obstacles.