CLARITY Act's Chances of Passing in 2026 Could Plunge if It Misses April Deadline

The CLARITY Act seeks to create the first comprehensive US market structure for digital assets, defining when tokens should be treated as securities or commodities and dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its significance extends beyond jurisdictional lines: negotiations over stablecoins and decentralized finance could determine whether Congress can deliver durable rules for an industry still operating under fragmented enforcement and guidance.

The Senate majority leader has moved to initiate a procedural vote, positioning the bill for a possible full-chamber vote as early as mid-September. The White House has pledged to push CLARITY across the “finish line” in September, but resistance is mounting. Senator Ruben Gallego has urged colleagues not to rush the measure, Galaxy cut its estimated odds of passage to 10%, and the CFTC and SEC are exploring joint regulatory steps should Congress fail to act.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a US market structure for digital assets and clarify the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its progress is closely watched by crypto exchanges, token issuers and traditional financial institutions because it could shape compliance requirements and determine how digital assets are regulated across federal agencies.

The Solana Policy Institute’s chief executive said the bill was stuck in “August recess purgatory” and assigned it only a 10% chance of passage before the November 2026 midterm elections. That assessment is more pessimistic than pricing on prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting mounting concern that traditional institutions’ involvement and election-year politics have made a congressional agreement substantially harder to reach.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a US regulatory framework for digital assets and clarify oversight responsibilities across federal agencies. Its prospects matter to crypto companies seeking predictable compliance rules and to investors concerned about market safeguards. Passage would mark a major step toward resolving years of uncertainty over how digital tokens and trading platforms should be regulated in the United States.

Galaxy Digital cut its estimate of the bill’s chances of passage to 30%, saying the legislation now requires a “last-ditch effort” to advance. Seven Democratic negotiators said the latest draft still needs tougher ethics rules and stronger consumer protections, highlighting unresolved obstacles to bipartisan support. A separate market assessment put the probability at 37%, underscoring the deterioration in expectations for the measure’s approval.

The U.S. Senate’s 616-page Digital Asset Market Clarity Act proposal seeks to establish a federal market structure for digital assets and delineate oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its stablecoin provisions address a central dispute between banks and crypto firms: whether payment tokens should compete with deposits. The draft treats payment stablecoins as uninsured digital cash for transactions and settlement, not as deposits or investment products.

An analysis published July 22 said the proposal would bar crypto platforms from paying U.S. customers interest solely for holding payment stablecoins. Rewards could remain permissible when linked to payments, remittances, liquidity provision, collateral, staking, governance or loyalty programs. If enacted, the SEC, CFTC and Treasury Department would have one year to jointly clarify the boundary and publish a nonexclusive list of permitted programs. Knowing and willful violations could draw civil penalties of as much as $5 million per violation.

The Clarity Act under consideration in the U.S. Congress aims to divide regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and establish clear rules for trading platforms, token issuers and institutional investors. Jefferies says enactment could accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, while delays would allow regulatory uncertainty to continue driving cryptocurrency prices and blockchain-related stocks.

As of July 20, 2026, the Clarity Act had passed review by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee but still faced a compressed Senate calendar and political concerns. Jefferies warned that the outcome of the legislative process could amplify market volatility. The related reports disclosed no specific investment or transaction amounts and provided no date for a Senate vote.

The U.S. CLARITY Act is intended to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto asset markets and clarify the rules governing regulators and industry participants. Whether the bill advances during the current Congress will determine whether the industry gains the long-awaited regulatory certainty it seeks and will shape the plans of trading platforms, token issuers and investors.

Galaxy Research recently lowered the bill's probability of passage to 50%, citing an increasingly constrained U.S. Senate floor schedule and three unresolved sticking points, including conflict-of-interest rules. If the Senate does not schedule a vote in early July, the legislative process could slip to September, delaying implementation of the regulatory framework.

The CLARITY Act moving through the U.S. Congress seeks to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital asset markets. Whether stablecoins may pay yields to holders has implications for bank deposits, the payments market and crypto companies’ business models. JPMorgan said traditional banks fear deposit outflows, while the crypto industry wants to preserve yield-bearing structures, deepening the legislative dispute.

JPMorgan’s latest report said the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by December 31, 2026, has declined because of political resistance and the unresolved definition of “stablecoin yield.” The recent debate has centered on whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest, with the banking and crypto industries yet to reach a consensus. Available information on the event disclosed neither a specific market value nor a new voting date.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.

The U.S. CLARITY Act would shape stablecoin rewards and the regulatory framework for digital assets. If an exemption for retail users is retained, ordinary consumers could continue receiving stablecoin rewards. The provision is particularly important to Coinbase, which relies on related yield-based business and could see an impact on its core revenue and the competitiveness of the U.S. crypto industry.

Polymarket at one point put the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at 70%, offering a glimmer of hope in Coinbase’s effort to protect its revenue. The latest market odds, however, have fallen to 38%. With only 28 days remaining until a key deadline at the end of May 2026, the bill may struggle to become law this year unless Congress advances it in time.