Solana Policy Chief Sees Just 10% Chance for Clarity Act Before Midterms

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a US regulatory framework for digital assets and clarify oversight responsibilities across federal agencies. Its prospects matter to crypto companies seeking predictable compliance rules and to investors concerned about market safeguards. Passage would mark a major step toward resolving years of uncertainty over how digital tokens and trading platforms should be regulated in the United States.

Galaxy Digital cut its estimate of the bill’s chances of passage to 30%, saying the legislation now requires a “last-ditch effort” to advance. Seven Democratic negotiators said the latest draft still needs tougher ethics rules and stronger consumer protections, highlighting unresolved obstacles to bipartisan support. A separate market assessment put the probability at 37%, underscoring the deterioration in expectations for the measure’s approval.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a major U.S. cryptocurrency market-structure bill intended to establish a clear regulatory framework for the industry and encourage businesses to return to the United States. The legislation has attracted close attention because of its implications for the market’s future compliance regime and industry development. Recent U.S. Senate negotiations over ethics provisions have reached an impasse, however, raising the prospect of further delays to the key bill.

Traders on prediction market Polymarket cut the probability of the bill passing this year to a record low of 24% on July 13, 2026. The odds subsequently edged up to 32% on July 17 but remained far below their previous level of more than 70%. Industry executives warned that continued delays in Senate negotiations would deepen U.S. regulatory uncertainty and severely impede the return of cryptocurrency companies and capital to the country.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a federal regulatory framework for U.S. digital-asset markets, clarifying oversight responsibilities and compliance requirements for the crypto industry. Its progress is closely watched because passage could provide greater policy certainty for market participants and mark a significant step in Congress’s effort to define how digital assets are supervised in the United States.

Polymarket now puts the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by Dec. 31 at 32%, the lowest level this year and down from 37% cited in an earlier report. Democrats and Republicans remain divided over ethics provisions addressing government officials’ conflicts of interest involving digital assets. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also acknowledged that the bill will not reach an August vote, leaving lawmakers with a narrowing window after the congressional recess.

The U.S. CLARITY Act is intended to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto asset markets and clarify the rules governing regulators and industry participants. Whether the bill advances during the current Congress will determine whether the industry gains the long-awaited regulatory certainty it seeks and will shape the plans of trading platforms, token issuers and investors.

Galaxy Research recently lowered the bill's probability of passage to 50%, citing an increasingly constrained U.S. Senate floor schedule and three unresolved sticking points, including conflict-of-interest rules. If the Senate does not schedule a vote in early July, the legislative process could slip to September, delaying implementation of the regulatory framework.

The U.S. CLARITY Act seeks to establish a market structure and division of regulatory responsibilities for digital assets. The crypto industry sees it as crucial legislation for clarifying rules governing securities, commodities and trading platforms. Its progress will affect not only compliance pathways for U.S. businesses but also competition between stablecoin rewards and bank deposits, as well as the future boundaries of DeFi regulation.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn recently cut his estimate of the bill's chances of passing in 2026 to 60%. He warned that committee consideration must be completed by the end of April, with the measure reaching the Senate floor in May; if that window is missed, its chances of passing this year would be extremely low. Wintermute's Ron Hammond had previously put the probability at just 30%, highlighting a compressed legislative calendar and opposition from the banking industry as the main obstacles.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.

The U.S. CLARITY Act would shape stablecoin rewards and the regulatory framework for digital assets. If an exemption for retail users is retained, ordinary consumers could continue receiving stablecoin rewards. The provision is particularly important to Coinbase, which relies on related yield-based business and could see an impact on its core revenue and the competitiveness of the U.S. crypto industry.

Polymarket at one point put the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at 70%, offering a glimmer of hope in Coinbase’s effort to protect its revenue. The latest market odds, however, have fallen to 38%. With only 28 days remaining until a key deadline at the end of May 2026, the bill may struggle to become law this year unless Congress advances it in time.