Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50%

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a US market structure for digital assets and clarify the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its progress is closely watched by crypto exchanges, token issuers and traditional financial institutions because it could shape compliance requirements and determine how digital assets are regulated across federal agencies.

The Solana Policy Institute’s chief executive said the bill was stuck in “August recess purgatory” and assigned it only a 10% chance of passage before the November 2026 midterm elections. That assessment is more pessimistic than pricing on prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting mounting concern that traditional institutions’ involvement and election-year politics have made a congressional agreement substantially harder to reach.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a US regulatory framework for digital assets and clarify oversight responsibilities across federal agencies. Its prospects matter to crypto companies seeking predictable compliance rules and to investors concerned about market safeguards. Passage would mark a major step toward resolving years of uncertainty over how digital tokens and trading platforms should be regulated in the United States.

Galaxy Digital cut its estimate of the bill’s chances of passage to 30%, saying the legislation now requires a “last-ditch effort” to advance. Seven Democratic negotiators said the latest draft still needs tougher ethics rules and stronger consumer protections, highlighting unresolved obstacles to bipartisan support. A separate market assessment put the probability at 37%, underscoring the deterioration in expectations for the measure’s approval.

The U.S. CLARITY Act seeks to establish a market structure and division of regulatory responsibilities for digital assets. The crypto industry sees it as crucial legislation for clarifying rules governing securities, commodities and trading platforms. Its progress will affect not only compliance pathways for U.S. businesses but also competition between stablecoin rewards and bank deposits, as well as the future boundaries of DeFi regulation.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn recently cut his estimate of the bill's chances of passing in 2026 to 60%. He warned that committee consideration must be completed by the end of April, with the measure reaching the Senate floor in May; if that window is missed, its chances of passing this year would be extremely low. Wintermute's Ron Hammond had previously put the probability at just 30%, highlighting a compressed legislative calendar and opposition from the banking industry as the main obstacles.