Long-Term Bitcoin Indicator Suggests Market Bottom Has Yet to Form

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

Bitcoin “OGs” generally refers to early investors who have held the cryptocurrency for more than five years, and movements of their coins are often seen as a sign of profit-taking. CryptoQuant tracks these holdings through spent transaction outputs, or STXOs. The bull cycle that began in early 2023 saw the most aggressive selling on record, making the retreat in selling pressure important to the market’s ability to establish structural support.

CryptoQuant data showed that as of June 23, 2026, the 90-day average amount spent by OG holders had fallen to 962 BTC, its lowest since November 2024 and a 19-month low. That was sharply below the May 2024 peak of 3,860 BTC. Using the halving cycle, analyst LP calculated that July 6, 2026, was day 826 and said the window for a market bottom could fall in early September.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.

The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.

Data aggregator Swissblock’s Bitcoin Risk Index is designed to identify the final stages of a downturn. After the indicator shifted from high to low risk in 2023, Bitcoin gained about 130% through 2024. A similar fractal has reappeared, offering an important clue as to whether the current bear market is nearing a turning point, though historical patterns do not guarantee another rally.

As of February 28, 2026, Swissblock said Bitcoin had remained in the “extreme risk” zone for 25 consecutive days, surpassing the 23-day record set in 2023. Ecoinometrics, however, showed that the 90-day average flow into Bitcoin ETFs was negative $2.06 billion. U.S. PCE inflation was 2.9% year on year, with core inflation at 3.0%. Willy Woo of CMCC Crest warned that a rebound into the $70,000–$80,000 range could encounter renewed selling pressure.