PlanB Warns Bitcoin Has Yet to Bottom, Sees More Than 50% Chance of Drop to $53,000

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin’s recent strength may prove to be a false breakout, leaving the cryptocurrency exposed to a steep correction toward the $40,000 range. His outlook stands out for combining a specific downside target with a long-dated market-cycle forecast, extending the expected bear-market trough into 2026 and the next potential record high into 2027.

Brandt’s latest projection places Bitcoin’s definitive cycle bottom in early October 2026, after a possible near-term retreat to around $40,000. He expects the market to begin a renewed advance after that low and potentially set an all-time high in 2027. The forecast reflects Brandt’s technical and historical cycle analysis and remains a market scenario rather than a guaranteed price path.

Bitcoin rebounded after the crypto market’s deleveraging in 2022, but its price remains sensitive to capital flows and technical support levels. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB assesses market cycles using realized price and the 200-week moving average. Investors often use these indicators to gauge whether a bear market has bottomed, drawing attention to the latest warning.

Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June and ended the month at $58,526, marking its worst June performance since June 2022. PlanB said the price remained above realized price but was below the 200-week moving average, suggesting a bottom might not yet have formed. Bitcoin could fall further to $52,000, the analyst warned.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin is closing in on the $60,000 level in a bear market, with large bids and asks on exchange order books potentially becoming targets for a liquidity sweep. CoinGlass data shows that $50,000–$60,000 is the main liquidity cluster. A drop below support followed by a swift rebound could establish the macro bottom for this bear market and catch short sellers off guard.

Cointelegraph cited pseudonymous trader Killa on June 19, 2026, as saying Bitcoin could sweep liquidity below $60,000 in the third quarter, no later than September, without necessarily reaching the $50,000 level widely targeted by the market. Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend $61,000–$62,000, while Exitpump observed on June 18 that short-term bearish positioning on Binance was becoming more aggressive.

Continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs point to waning risk appetite among institutional investors. Strong gains in AI-related stocks are also raising the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. Capital has consequently moved into stablecoins on the sidelines, creating a feedback loop between crypto selling pressure and bearish sentiment. Where funds flow next will be crucial to whether prices can stabilize.

As of July 2026, trading data from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket showed that traders on both platforms put the probability of Bitcoin falling below $50,000 during 2026 at more than 50%. With net outflows from spot ETFs yet to reverse and investors continuing to chase AI stocks, $50,000 has become a key psychological threshold for gauging the current downturn.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.