Bitcoin Slide Persists as Prediction Markets Put Odds of Drop Below $50,000 Above 50%

Bitcoin has lost both the psychological $60,000 threshold and support at $58,000, signaling weakening demand from buyers. Technical analysts say breakdowns from both a rounded top and a bear flag suggest the market may be shifting from consolidation into a decline, with implications for risk appetite across the broader cryptocurrency market.

The latest wave of selling has erased Bitcoin's gains for June, with the drop to $58,000 confirming a technical breakdown. Market analysts expect the price could test $54,000 over the coming days. If that level also fails to hold, the decline could extend below $50,000.

Bitcoin has gone through several bull and bear cycles since its 2009 launch. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB gained market attention for developing the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, but this time based his outlook on short-term quantitative indicators and the onchain realized price. Realized price reflects holders’ average cost basis and is often viewed as a key threshold for bear-market support and market stress.

As of July 20, 2026, PlanB said Bitcoin had yet to establish a true bottom. His short-term quantitative data indicated a greater than 50% chance that the price would retest the realized price of $53,000 and possibly dip below it briefly. He stressed that this was his personal technical analysis, not an S2F model forecast of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Bitcoin has remained under pressure amid threats from U.S. tariff policy and a broader selloff in risk assets. Because BTC is widely viewed as a gauge of risk appetite in crypto markets, its sharp decline has weighed on the sector and prompted investors to seek refuge in stablecoins, rapidly worsening market sentiment.

As of Feb. 23, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had fallen to 5, placing it in the “extreme fear” zone. Polymarket traders put the probability of BTC falling below $55,000 at 72%, up from the 66%–70% shown in related reports, signaling expectations that the selloff could continue.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.