Kalshi Tops $2 Billion in Annualized Revenue, Reportedly Begins Early IPO Talks

Kalshi is a financial prediction-market platform that allows users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of political, economic and other events. Its main rival is Polymarket. Kalshi's valuation and fundraising capacity reflect the prediction market's rapid expansion and bear on the two companies' race for users, trading volume and industry dominance.

Kalshi is in talks to raise a new funding round at a valuation of up to $40 billion, nearly double its valuation in the previous round. It plans to use the funding to widen its lead over Polymarket. Chief Executive Tarek Mansour said the company remained financially sound and was sustaining strong growth, and was considering pursuing an IPO after 2027.

Kalshi is a prediction-market platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that allows users to trade contracts based on sporting-event outcomes. Illinois has subjected such products to state sports-betting restrictions, sparking a dispute over whether federal derivatives oversight preempts state intervention. The outcome could also affect how prediction markets operate across states.

Kalshi recently sued Illinois officials to challenge a provision in the state's newly enacted budget bill that is scheduled to take effect on July 1. The company argues that restrictions on sporting-event contracts encroach on the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority. It is seeking to block enforcement, saying the provision would immediately restrict its products and cause irreparable harm that monetary damages could not adequately remedy.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of elections, economic data releases and other events, combining crowd forecasting with financial speculation. As the market expands rapidly, banks must decide whether to offer trading, clearing or client services while assessing regulatory and reputational risks and competition with traditional derivatives.

Analysts estimate prediction market trading volume will rise from $16 billion to $64 billion in 2025, quadrupling in size. The growing prominence of Kalshi and Polymarket offers opportunities to generate fees and attract new customers, but banks must still weigh compliance costs, concerns about market manipulation and potential losses from event contracts.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade event contracts tied to political, economic and geopolitical outcomes. Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Polymarket began as a crypto-based platform. Rapid growth in trading volumes and revenue at both companies has propelled prediction markets from a niche tool into a hot fintech sector.

On March 7, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that Kalshi and Polymarket were each in talks to raise fresh funding at target valuations of $20 billion. On May 7, Kalshi formally confirmed that it had completed a $1 billion Series F round led by Coatue, raising its valuation to $22 billion — roughly double its level five months earlier.

Kalshi is a prediction-market exchange under the federal oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to trade contracts on the outcomes of political, economic and other events. Its compliance strategy differs from that of crypto-native platform Polymarket, shaping a broader industry debate over whether prediction markets should fall under the federal financial system or be regulated separately by individual states.

The latest data show Kalshi controlling about 89% of the U.S. prediction market, reflecting the lead gained by its regulated trading model. The report did not provide a cutoff date for the data or disclose trading volumes or values. Attention will now turn to the legal and regulatory cases facing Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as the boundary between federal and state jurisdiction.

Kalshi is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated event-contract trading platform where users can trade contracts tied to event outcomes. A perfect NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket requires correctly picking the winners of 63 consecutive games. If every game is treated as a 50-50 proposition, the odds of perfection are only about 1 in 9.22 quintillion, making the high-stakes challenge a marketing tool to raise the platform’s profile and attract new users.

Kalshi announced the perfect-bracket challenge on March 16, 2026. Entrants must submit one bracket free of charge by 1 p.m. Eastern Time on March 19, with $1 billion awarded for correctly predicting all 63 games. The prize is financially backed by Susquehanna International Group affiliate SIG Parametrics, LLC. If no one submits a perfect bracket, the highest-scoring entrant will still receive $1 million.