U.S. Users Defy Ban to Place $570 Million in Political Bets on Polymarket

Polymarket allows traders to use crypto assets to wager on outcomes ranging from elections to economic events, with contract prices often treated as real-time measures of collective expectations. The decentralized prediction market relies heavily on transparent blockchain records and wallet activity to establish credibility, making signs of trading on nonpublic information or coordinated bets a significant test of market integrity and a potential focus for regulators.

A Bloomberg Businessweek analysis flagged about $200 million of Polymarket trading during the first half as potentially linked to insider activity. The top 1% of profitable accounts captured more than half of all gains, while over 50% of winning wallets were created within 24 hours before placing their bets. Some traders also appeared to split positions across multiple related wallets before withdrawing proceeds through Coinbase, intensifying scrutiny of the platform’s fairness.

Prediction markets allow participants to wager money on the outcomes of political, economic and other events, making their prices a gauge of collective expectations. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) required Polymarket’s global platform to block U.S. users. Trading has continued to flow offshore through VPNs and the anonymity provided by crypto wallets, creating a regulatory gap.

A study released by Crane & Zeng Consulting in June 2026 estimated that U.S. users generated $11 billion to $34 billion in offshore trading volume from May 2025 through April 2026, with Polymarket accounting for $11 billion to $27 billion. Over the same period, CFTC-regulated platforms recorded $74 billion in trading volume, including $70 billion on Kalshi, while offshore platforms recorded a combined $85 billion.

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where users trade on the outcomes of political, economic and public events. It has expanded its regulated U.S. operations in recent years. The revenue surge could help support its pursuit of a $15 billion valuation and intensify its competition with regulated rival Kalshi.

By the sixth week after the launch of its U.S. exchange, Polymarket’s projected annualized revenue had exceeded $1 billion, indicating that the new market quickly boosted trading and fee income. Although reports did not disclose the exact launch date or weekly revenue, the milestone has become an important indicator of prediction markets’ accelerating move into the mainstream.