Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin’s Cycle Bottom Could Be Higher Than in the Past

Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its peak this cycle and is now trading near $64,000 as the market weighs whether the prolonged correction has ended. The cycle bottom is critical to entry timing and risk allocation, but Standard Chartered and Galaxy Research remain sharply divided in their readings of price action and market indicators.

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin hit its cycle bottom in June 2026 and that the area around $64,000 could provide support. Galaxy Research and other institutions said market signals have yet to reset fully, with deleveraging still incomplete and investor sentiment not sufficiently cooled. They therefore see a risk of further price declines.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin is closing in on the $60,000 level in a bear market, with large bids and asks on exchange order books potentially becoming targets for a liquidity sweep. CoinGlass data shows that $50,000–$60,000 is the main liquidity cluster. A drop below support followed by a swift rebound could establish the macro bottom for this bear market and catch short sellers off guard.

Cointelegraph cited pseudonymous trader Killa on June 19, 2026, as saying Bitcoin could sweep liquidity below $60,000 in the third quarter, no later than September, without necessarily reaching the $50,000 level widely targeted by the market. Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend $61,000–$62,000, while Exitpump observed on June 18 that short-term bearish positioning on Binance was becoming more aggressive.

Bitcoin’s price cycles are often assessed in relation to its halving events, which occur roughly every four years. The latest halving took place on April 20, 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Whether the cycle persists shapes investors’ expectations for bull-bear turning points and longer-term highs.

Trader Bob Loukas said Bitcoin’s current trajectory remains closely aligned with its traditional four-year cycle and could retreat to a mid-cycle low of about $53,000 before challenging an all-time high in 2028. The market is still watching whether $60,000 can hold, while price movements across previous cycles have shown a high degree of similarity.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

On-chain data platform Glassnode assesses Bitcoin market cycles using investors’ cost bases and unrealized profits and losses. Its “median holder breakeven level” marks the cost threshold dividing investors in half. A move below that level typically signals mounting market pressure and may indicate that Bitcoin is gradually entering a historically low valuation range.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael most recently said Bitcoin had fallen below the median holder breakeven level. Based on historical cycles and on-chain valuations, he estimated that the market is likely to bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 in the current cycle. He also said drawdowns from the peak have been gradually shrinking with each cycle, while stressing that the projected bottom is not a definitive price target.

Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.

The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.

Bitcoin’s market bottom is often estimated using declines, cycle duration and cost ranges from previous bull and bear markets, making $57,000 a potential support benchmark. Historical averages can help investors assess downside risk, but they do not guarantee prices and remain subject to capital flows, macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment.

A recent report cited an analyst as saying historical averages suggest Bitcoin could bottom near $57,000 in the current cycle. The available information does not identify the analyst or their firm, specify the period covered by the model or give the report’s publication date. The level can therefore only be treated as a cycle benchmark for now, rather than a confirmed market bottom.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.