Polymarket Odds of CLARITY Act Stablecoin Bill Passing Hit 70%

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a major U.S. cryptocurrency market-structure bill intended to establish a clear regulatory framework for the industry and encourage businesses to return to the United States. The legislation has attracted close attention because of its implications for the market’s future compliance regime and industry development. Recent U.S. Senate negotiations over ethics provisions have reached an impasse, however, raising the prospect of further delays to the key bill.

Traders on prediction market Polymarket cut the probability of the bill passing this year to a record low of 24% on July 13, 2026. The odds subsequently edged up to 32% on July 17 but remained far below their previous level of more than 70%. Industry executives warned that continued delays in Senate negotiations would deepen U.S. regulatory uncertainty and severely impede the return of cryptocurrency companies and capital to the country.

The CLARITY Act is intended to establish a US regulatory framework for digital assets and is a key piece of legislation governing the cryptocurrency and fintech markets. Its passage would give Web3 companies and digital asset trading clear compliance guidelines and directly shape the global fintech industry, drawing close attention from the blockchain sector, technology investors and Wall Street financial institutions worldwide.

The latest Polymarket data from July 2026 showed that the probability of the bill passing by year-end had fallen to a record low of 32%. The main obstacle is that US Democrats and Republicans have yet to agree on ethics provisions addressing government officials’ conflicts of interest involving digital assets. With Congress approaching its August recess, the legislative window before year-end continues to narrow, further dimming the bill’s prospects.

The U.S. CLARITY Act seeks to establish a market structure and division of regulatory responsibilities for digital assets. The crypto industry sees it as crucial legislation for clarifying rules governing securities, commodities and trading platforms. Its progress will affect not only compliance pathways for U.S. businesses but also competition between stablecoin rewards and bank deposits, as well as the future boundaries of DeFi regulation.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn recently cut his estimate of the bill's chances of passing in 2026 to 60%. He warned that committee consideration must be completed by the end of April, with the measure reaching the Senate floor in May; if that window is missed, its chances of passing this year would be extremely low. Wintermute's Ron Hammond had previously put the probability at just 30%, highlighting a compressed legislative calendar and opposition from the banking industry as the main obstacles.