Polymarket Odds of CLARITY Act Stablecoin Bill Passing Hit 70%

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a US market structure for digital assets and clarify the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its progress is closely watched by crypto exchanges, token issuers and traditional financial institutions because it could shape compliance requirements and determine how digital assets are regulated across federal agencies.

The Solana Policy Institute’s chief executive said the bill was stuck in “August recess purgatory” and assigned it only a 10% chance of passage before the November 2026 midterm elections. That assessment is more pessimistic than pricing on prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting mounting concern that traditional institutions’ involvement and election-year politics have made a congressional agreement substantially harder to reach.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a major U.S. cryptocurrency market-structure bill intended to establish a clear regulatory framework for the industry and encourage businesses to return to the United States. The legislation has attracted close attention because of its implications for the market’s future compliance regime and industry development. Recent U.S. Senate negotiations over ethics provisions have reached an impasse, however, raising the prospect of further delays to the key bill.

Traders on prediction market Polymarket cut the probability of the bill passing this year to a record low of 24% on July 13, 2026. The odds subsequently edged up to 32% on July 17 but remained far below their previous level of more than 70%. Industry executives warned that continued delays in Senate negotiations would deepen U.S. regulatory uncertainty and severely impede the return of cryptocurrency companies and capital to the country.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a federal regulatory framework for U.S. digital-asset markets, clarifying oversight responsibilities and compliance requirements for the crypto industry. Its progress is closely watched because passage could provide greater policy certainty for market participants and mark a significant step in Congress’s effort to define how digital assets are supervised in the United States.

Polymarket now puts the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by Dec. 31 at 32%, the lowest level this year and down from 37% cited in an earlier report. Democrats and Republicans remain divided over ethics provisions addressing government officials’ conflicts of interest involving digital assets. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also acknowledged that the bill will not reach an August vote, leaving lawmakers with a narrowing window after the congressional recess.

The U.S. CLARITY Act seeks to establish a market structure and division of regulatory responsibilities for digital assets. The crypto industry sees it as crucial legislation for clarifying rules governing securities, commodities and trading platforms. Its progress will affect not only compliance pathways for U.S. businesses but also competition between stablecoin rewards and bank deposits, as well as the future boundaries of DeFi regulation.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn recently cut his estimate of the bill's chances of passing in 2026 to 60%. He warned that committee consideration must be completed by the end of April, with the measure reaching the Senate floor in May; if that window is missed, its chances of passing this year would be extremely low. Wintermute's Ron Hammond had previously put the probability at just 30%, highlighting a compressed legislative calendar and opposition from the banking industry as the main obstacles.