Bitcoin Loss-Selling Signal Raises Risk of Drop Below $44,000

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 as bullish derivatives positioning remained elevated and spot demand weakened, pushing the market into a short-term cooldown. On-chain “active distribution” indicates that holders are shifting toward selling. When exchange inflows rise as price discounts widen, correction risk typically increases. Long-term holders, however, have not retreated significantly, potentially providing market support.

Bitcoin fell as low as $72,500 on May 27. The Coinbase premium gap dropped to minus $94.95, a negative deviation of 1,083% from its three-month average. Binance’s seven-day average net inflow reached 1,496 BTC, up 528% from its three-month average, while crypto liquidations totaled $935 million that day. Long-term holders still controlled 84.3% of circulating supply, suggesting that some investors may be buying the dip.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.

Bitcoin investors incur “realized losses” when they transfer assets to exchanges and sell them below cost, a metric commonly used to gauge market panic and forced deleveraging. Recent on-chain data show that loss-driven selling pressure is gradually fading, offering an important indicator of whether Bitcoin is nearing a short-term bottom and whether spot demand can stabilize.

The latest observations compiled as of July 20, 2026, show Bitcoin’s daily realized losses have fallen 80%, from a peak of about $2 billion to roughly $400 million. The realized profit-to-loss ratio has recovered to 1.4. Although the original information does not identify the data provider or exact measurement date, the indicators suggest the market is shifting from aggressive selling to net buying, with signs of seller exhaustion emerging.