Bitcoin Selling Pressure Eases as Declining Realized Losses Signal Seller Exhaustion

Glassnode estimates holders’ cost basis from the price at which Bitcoin last moved onchain, classifying coins as carrying an unrealized loss when the market price falls below that level. When supply held at a loss overtakes supply in profit and the price approaches its 200-week moving average, it often signals pressure on investors and a change of hands. Such conditions have historically appeared late in bear markets, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.

Glassnode said on July 1 that about 10.83 million Bitcoin were held at a loss, exceeding the 9.22 million still in profit. Bitcoin rebounded to about $61,700 on July 3 but remained below its 200-week moving average of $62,660. K33 found that the market historically bottomed within about 13–101 days after similar signals appeared.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 as bullish derivatives positioning remained elevated and spot demand weakened, pushing the market into a short-term cooldown. On-chain “active distribution” indicates that holders are shifting toward selling. When exchange inflows rise as price discounts widen, correction risk typically increases. Long-term holders, however, have not retreated significantly, potentially providing market support.

Bitcoin fell as low as $72,500 on May 27. The Coinbase premium gap dropped to minus $94.95, a negative deviation of 1,083% from its three-month average. Binance’s seven-day average net inflow reached 1,496 BTC, up 528% from its three-month average, while crypto liquidations totaled $935 million that day. Long-term holders still controlled 84.3% of circulating supply, suggesting that some investors may be buying the dip.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.

Onchain analytics firm Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score measures whether different wallet cohorts are adding to their Bitcoin holdings. A score near zero indicates that large holders have shifted to selling or remaining on the sidelines. Broad accumulation in the fourth quarter of 2024 helped propel Bitcoin above $100,000 for the first time, making a shift by whales toward distribution an important indicator of market momentum and potential selling pressure.

A May 21, 2026, report said Bitcoin fell nearly 7% from $82,800 and touched $76,000 on May 18. Glassnode said realized losses reached $616 million on May 19, with long-term holders accounting for $513.6 million. Whales' annual absorption rate hit a record low of -151%. CryptoQuant said more than 8,000 BTC flowed onto exchanges on May 18.

The realized profit/loss ratio measures profits and losses on Bitcoin sold on-chain. A drop in its 90-day moving average below 1 indicates that traders as a whole have begun selling at a loss. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said similar phases in the past lasted at least six months. Bitcoin fell more than 50% over five months after the signal appeared in 2018 and declined another 25% over six months following the 2022 signal, making it a warning that a bear market may be deepening.

Bitcoin’s 90-day moving average for the realized profit/loss ratio fell below 1 on February 23, 2026, for the first time since 2022. Citing Glassnode data on February 24, Cointelegraph said loss-selling could persist for at least another five months if history repeats. MVRV pricing bands put February’s extreme low at about $43,760, which could become a downside target as soon as August and falls within analysts’ estimated range of $40,000 to $50,000.