CLARITY Act Could Bolster CFTC Prediction-Market Oversight, Lawyer Says

The CLARITY Act is intended to establish a US regulatory framework for digital assets and is a key piece of legislation governing the cryptocurrency and fintech markets. Its passage would give Web3 companies and digital asset trading clear compliance guidelines and directly shape the global fintech industry, drawing close attention from the blockchain sector, technology investors and Wall Street financial institutions worldwide.

The latest Polymarket data from July 2026 showed that the probability of the bill passing by year-end had fallen to a record low of 32%. The main obstacle is that US Democrats and Republicans have yet to agree on ethics provisions addressing government officials’ conflicts of interest involving digital assets. With Congress approaching its August recess, the legislative window before year-end continues to narrow, further dimming the bill’s prospects.

U.S. cryptocurrency oversight has long remained murky, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission vying for the lead role. The CLARITY Act before Congress seeks to establish clear market-structure rules and resolve enforcement disputes once and for all. Its passage will directly affect whether the United States retains influence over the global digital-asset financial system and prevents domestic companies from moving abroad because of regulatory uncertainty.

CFTC Acting Chairman Selig recently warned that regulators would write their own rules to fill the legal void if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act before its August recess this year. He said such an outcome would cost the United States its authority to set cryptocurrency rules and force U.S. companies to operate under overseas frameworks such as the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, or MiCA.

The Clarity Act under consideration in the U.S. Congress aims to divide regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and establish clear rules for trading platforms, token issuers and institutional investors. Jefferies says enactment could accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, while delays would allow regulatory uncertainty to continue driving cryptocurrency prices and blockchain-related stocks.

As of July 20, 2026, the Clarity Act had passed review by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee but still faced a compressed Senate calendar and political concerns. Jefferies warned that the outcome of the legislative process could amplify market volatility. The related reports disclosed no specific investment or transaction amounts and provided no date for a Senate vote.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.