CLARITY Act Could Bolster CFTC Prediction-Market Oversight, Lawyer Says

The CLARITY Act seeks to create the first comprehensive US market structure for digital assets, defining when tokens should be treated as securities or commodities and dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its significance extends beyond jurisdictional lines: negotiations over stablecoins and decentralized finance could determine whether Congress can deliver durable rules for an industry still operating under fragmented enforcement and guidance.

The Senate majority leader has moved to initiate a procedural vote, positioning the bill for a possible full-chamber vote as early as mid-September. The White House has pledged to push CLARITY across the “finish line” in September, but resistance is mounting. Senator Ruben Gallego has urged colleagues not to rush the measure, Galaxy cut its estimated odds of passage to 10%, and the CFTC and SEC are exploring joint regulatory steps should Congress fail to act.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, or H.R. 3633, is intended to divide oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving the derivatives regulator a broader role in spot crypto markets. The House passed the bill 294-134 on July 17, 2025, but Senate talks have bogged down over ethics restrictions, stablecoin rewards and protections for decentralized finance. Legislation would provide a more durable framework than agency rules, which could face court challenges or reversal by future administrations.

CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said on Aug. 20, 2026, that he had directed staff to explore crypto market-structure rules and would order formal proposals if Congress failed to advance CLARITY. The framework could address registered exchanges, leveraged or margined trading on some unregistered platforms, and legal pathways for on-chain financial protocols. Selig said legislation remained the surest route, but the agency would use its existing statutory authority if necessary, as the Senate targets a procedural vote in mid-September after returning from its August recess.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a federal regulatory framework for U.S. digital-asset markets, clarifying oversight responsibilities and compliance requirements for the crypto industry. Its progress is closely watched because passage could provide greater policy certainty for market participants and mark a significant step in Congress’s effort to define how digital assets are supervised in the United States.

Polymarket now puts the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by Dec. 31 at 32%, the lowest level this year and down from 37% cited in an earlier report. Democrats and Republicans remain divided over ethics provisions addressing government officials’ conflicts of interest involving digital assets. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also acknowledged that the bill will not reach an August vote, leaving lawmakers with a narrowing window after the congressional recess.

U.S. cryptocurrency oversight has long remained murky, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission vying for the lead role. The CLARITY Act before Congress seeks to establish clear market-structure rules and resolve enforcement disputes once and for all. Its passage will directly affect whether the United States retains influence over the global digital-asset financial system and prevents domestic companies from moving abroad because of regulatory uncertainty.

CFTC Acting Chairman Selig recently warned that regulators would write their own rules to fill the legal void if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act before its August recess this year. He said such an outcome would cost the United States its authority to set cryptocurrency rules and force U.S. companies to operate under overseas frameworks such as the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, or MiCA.

The Clarity Act under consideration in the U.S. Congress aims to divide regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and establish clear rules for trading platforms, token issuers and institutional investors. Jefferies says enactment could accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, while delays would allow regulatory uncertainty to continue driving cryptocurrency prices and blockchain-related stocks.

As of July 20, 2026, the Clarity Act had passed review by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee but still faced a compressed Senate calendar and political concerns. Jefferies warned that the outcome of the legislative process could amplify market volatility. The related reports disclosed no specific investment or transaction amounts and provided no date for a Senate vote.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.