CLARITY Act Odds Jump Ahead of Key Senate Vote

US prediction markets have expanded rapidly, intensifying a jurisdictional fight over event contracts offered by platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig maintains that such contracts are swaps under the agency’s exclusive authority, while several states have pursued lawsuits tied to sports wagering. The debate carries added weight because Selig is the CFTC’s only Senate-confirmed commissioner, leaving a regulator normally led by a five-member panel facing questions about its capacity and enforcement resources.

At a July 21, 2026, hearing of the House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, Katten Muchin Rosenman partner Carl Kennedy said the CFTC was too short-staffed to oversee the sector fully. Kennedy said the Senate’s pending Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could provide additional authority, but argued that Congress should also supply resources for digital assets and prediction markets. Republican senators are seeking a vote before the August recess and said updated bill text would be released soon.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a major U.S. cryptocurrency market-structure bill intended to establish a clear regulatory framework for the industry and encourage businesses to return to the United States. The legislation has attracted close attention because of its implications for the market’s future compliance regime and industry development. Recent U.S. Senate negotiations over ethics provisions have reached an impasse, however, raising the prospect of further delays to the key bill.

Traders on prediction market Polymarket cut the probability of the bill passing this year to a record low of 24% on July 13, 2026. The odds subsequently edged up to 32% on July 17 but remained far below their previous level of more than 70%. Industry executives warned that continued delays in Senate negotiations would deepen U.S. regulatory uncertainty and severely impede the return of cryptocurrency companies and capital to the country.

The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a federal regulatory framework for U.S. digital-asset markets, clarifying oversight responsibilities and compliance requirements for the crypto industry. Its progress is closely watched because passage could provide greater policy certainty for market participants and mark a significant step in Congress’s effort to define how digital assets are supervised in the United States.

Polymarket now puts the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by Dec. 31 at 32%, the lowest level this year and down from 37% cited in an earlier report. Democrats and Republicans remain divided over ethics provisions addressing government officials’ conflicts of interest involving digital assets. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also acknowledged that the bill will not reach an August vote, leaving lawmakers with a narrowing window after the congressional recess.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) would establish the first broad U.S. market-structure framework for crypto, drawing regulatory lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and setting rules for digital commodities and trading platforms. The House passed the measure 294-134 on July 17, 2025. The Senate is negotiating its own text, and any changes would require further House action, making timing central to whether President Donald Trump can receive a final bill in 2026.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed before the chamber left for its August 2026 recess, setting a 2:15 p.m. vote for Sept. 15. Advancing the bill will require 60 votes, while negotiators still have to settle provisions covering public officials’ crypto conflicts, stablecoin rewards, decentralized finance and illicit-finance safeguards. September also brings government-funding work and other competing priorities. With the Nov. 3 midterm elections approaching, another delay could leave too little floor time to reconcile the Senate and House versions this year.