Glassnode Says Bitcoin Has Spent Five Months at Deep Discount, Building a Bottom

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

Miner capitulation occurs when revenue falls below operating costs, forcing less efficient operators to shut down and sell BTC. That reduces the hash rate and intensifies selling pressure. Glassnode’s Hash Ribbon compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the hash rate. A fresh crossover of the shorter average above the longer one has historically coincided with local or cyclical Bitcoin bottoms, making it a deep-value signal for the market.

Glassnode said on Feb. 25 that the capitulation phase had lasted about three months since late November 2025, as BTC fell from $90,000 to nearly $60,000 in early February. By June 12, Capriole Investments estimated production costs at $61,200 and electricity costs at $48,965, with miner profit margins at just 4.67%. Trader Killa therefore said the final bear-market bottom might not arrive until later in 2026.

Bitcoin fell into bear-market territory after its May rebound failed, as a stronger dollar and persistently high U.S. Treasury yields weighed on demand for risk assets. Onchain analytics firm Glassnode said widespread losses among short-term holders and the retreat of institutional capital indicate that the market is moving from a routine correction into a capitulation phase. Whether fresh buyers emerge will determine if a bottom can form.

Glassnode said on June 10, 2026, that Bitcoin had fallen 7.5% in one week to $61,700, after touching an intraday low of $59,000. More than 95% of short-term holders were at a loss, with average unrealized losses of 17% to 19%. Daily purchases by corporate treasuries also fell from more than $500 million in April and May to nearly zero in June, while U.S. spot ETFs recorded outflows and institutional demand had yet to recover.

On-chain data platform Glassnode assesses Bitcoin market cycles using investors’ cost bases and unrealized profits and losses. Its “median holder breakeven level” marks the cost threshold dividing investors in half. A move below that level typically signals mounting market pressure and may indicate that Bitcoin is gradually entering a historically low valuation range.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael most recently said Bitcoin had fallen below the median holder breakeven level. Based on historical cycles and on-chain valuations, he estimated that the market is likely to bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 in the current cycle. He also said drawdowns from the peak have been gradually shrinking with each cycle, while stressing that the projected bottom is not a definitive price target.

Glassnode uses onchain data to track the distribution of Bitcoin holdings and believes bear-market bottoms typically become clearer only when long-term holders control at least 85% of the supply. The threshold reflects coins moving from short-term traders to long-term investors and is an important signal for assessing whether selling pressure has been fully absorbed.

As of July 20, 2026, Glassnode’s indicator showed that long-term holders controlled about 80% of the supply, 5 percentage points short of the historical 85% bottoming threshold. The market could therefore remain range-bound for several more months. The related report did not provide Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price at the time or any other monetary figures.